Flávio Bolsonaro leads the first round of Brazil’s presidential election with 47.75% of the vote, according to results with over 97% of ballots counted. Because no candidate achieved an absolute majority, a second round is required to determine the winner.
Bolsonaro Outperforms Polls to Force Second Round
The first-round result marks a surprise shift from pre-election expectations. NOS Nieuws reports that many polls had predicted a first-round victory for Lula, with some forecasting a 3 percentage point lead for the incumbent. A CNT/MDA poll conducted between September 30 and October 2 had placed Lula at 47.8% against Bolsonaro’s 42.1% when excluding blank or invalid ballots. A separate scenario from the same poll had Lula at 43.1%, followed by Bolsonaro at 38%, Augusto Cury at 3.2%, Ronaldo Caiado at 3%, and Renan Santos at 1.5%.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, stated he is “very happy” with the results and believes Brazil is seeking change. He added there is a “real possibility” that Brazil will choose a “modern government” within three weeks.
Lula Faces Unexpected Resistance from Traditional Base
President Lula, 80, expressed disappointment, calling the result “unexpected” and admitting he was convinced he would win in the first round, according to NOS Nieuws. He stated, “The game is just beginning. We have extra time. We will win the Brazilian people over.”
NRC reports that “bolsonaristas” are gaining strength in densely populated peripheries and among Black and mixed-race (pardo) Brazilians. This includes the Baixada Fluminense, a region of four million people. Some former Lula supporters cite rising costs of living and increased neighborhood insecurity as reasons for switching their allegiance to the right-wing PL party. Patricia Ferreira da Silva, 45, who previously voted for Lula, said “none of Lula’s promises came true” and that she now craves “radical change.”
Contrasting Agendas for the October 25 Vote
The two candidates offer fundamentally different visions for Brazil’s future:
- Flávio Bolsonaro: Runs on a radical-right, conservative agenda. A primary goal is granting amnesty to his father, Jair Bolsonaro, NOS Nieuws reported. Jair Bolsonaro was appointed him as successor after being sentenced to over 27 years in prison for plotting a coup.
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: Advocates for a progressive social agenda focused on protecting the Amazon rainforest and supporting impoverished families, according to NOS Nieuws.
De Telegraaf notes that the cost of living, corruption, and public safety have emerged as the defining themes of the campaign.
Election Results Comparison
| Candidate | First Round Vote % | Political Alignment | Key Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 47.75% | Radical-Right | Conservative agenda / Family amnesty |
| Lula da Silva | 44.66% | Left-wing | Social welfare / Amazon protection |
Brazil Presidential Election Questions
When is the final vote?
Brazilians will return to the polls for the second round on October 25 to decide the presidency.
Who else was on the ballot?
Twelve other candidates have been eliminated. According to a CNT/MDA poll, other contenders included Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos.
What other positions were contested?
Beyond the presidency, voters selected representatives and senators for the National Congress, state representatives, and governors, NRC reported.
The current political divide follows a period where the CNT/MDA poll showed Lula leading a potential runoff with 47.3% against Bolsonaro’s 43.1%.
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