Canada Prepares for US Invasion Risk Amid Trump Tensions

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney Prepares for Extreme Risk of United States Invasion

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has spent the past year quietly preparing his country to face the extreme risk of a United States military invasion, cnnindonesia.com reported. While assessing the likelihood of such an attack as very low, Carney said the potential impact is so massive that failing to prepare would be irresponsible.

The candid assessment emerged during a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times at its Midtown Manhattan headquarters. Relations between Ottawa and Washington have grown increasingly tense during the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump, leading Canadian officials to fundamentally reevaluate long-standing defense and supply chain assumptions.

Managing Worst-Case Scenarios in Ottawa and Washington

Carney, a former central banker in both Canada and the United Kingdom, defended his risk-management approach by comparing it to financial contingency planning. When asked if he took seriously threats regarding Canada potentially becoming the 51st U.S. state, Carney indicated he takes all extreme national security risks seriously regardless of probability.

“I think in this position, you have a responsibility to consider extreme risks even if the likelihood of occurrence is very small,” Carney told The New York Times.

He declined to detail every specific defense preparation underway. However, he confirmed that his administration has systematically worked to reduce Canada’s reliance on American technology. Ottawa has targeted critical supply chains ranging from space satellites to fighter jets to insulate the country from sudden policy shifts by its southern neighbor.

Shifting Global Order Alters Canada-U.S. Security Calculus

Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, noted that Canada preparing for potential American hostility illustrates a profound shift in the global order. Schmidt explained that historic cooperation frameworks between Ottawa and Washington could theoretically be leveraged by the U.S. to harm Canadian interests if bilateral relations deteriorate further.

Public anxiety has risen alongside political friction. Following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, a Leger public opinion poll revealed that more than 30 percent of Canadians believe a U.S. military invasion is possible.

President Trump stated in 2025 that the U.S. is highly unlikely to use military force against Canada, preferring instead to apply economic pressure to achieve political goals. Despite the collapse of bilateral trade negotiations last month amid ongoing tariff disputes, Carney confirmed that he and Trump still talk frequently. Describing their communication style, Carney noted that both leaders speak directly, which keeps their working relationship efficient.

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