A technical report developed by the Health Secretariat of Valle del Cauca, based on data from the Single Registry of Affiliates (RUAF), warns that Nueva EPS affiliates in the department present worse mortality indicators since the beginning of the institutional crisis reported as of July 2025. The analysis, dated February 2026 and prepared by the departmental Health Secretary, María Cristina Lesmes Duque, suggests a differential deterioration compared to other EPS, especially in closely related causes of death. with the continuity and opportunity of health care.
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The document evaluates excess mortality in Nueva EPS affiliates during a period of three years, between January 2023 and January 2026. For the analysis, a 30-month baseline was compared with a seven-month crisis period, in which the institutional situation of the insurer would have deepened. The study universe included 97,095 non-fetal deaths of residents of Valle del Cauca, officially registered in the RUAF, excluding external causes.
New EPS crisis in Valle del Cauca would be reflected in an increase in preventable deaths. Photo:MAURICIO MORENO
According to the report, the central hypothesis is that systematic failures in the operation of Nueva EPS—such as the denial of authorizations, shortages of medications, interruption of treatments and barriers to access to services—could be associated with an increase in the avoidable mortality of its members. Under this assumption, the monthly evolution of deaths and their behavior compared to other insurers present in the department were analyzed.
The results show that, during the baseline, the monthly average of deaths was 619. However, in the crisis period, towards the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026, peaks were recorded that exceeded 700 and, in some months, approached 800 deaths. When comparing the increase between the baseline and the critical period, Nueva EPS presented an increase of 14.1% in mortality, while the other EPS registered an increase of 9.6%. The difference between both behaviors is equivalent to 4.5 percentage points.
Report on mortality of Nueva EPS members in Valle del Cauca. Photo:Private file
The report delves into the so-called care-sensitive causes, that is, those deaths that can be directly affected by interruptions in treatment, lack of medications or delays in medical care. In this group, the greatest relative increase was observed in endocrine and metabolic diseases, particularly diabetes, with a 50.1% increase in the monthly average of deaths, which translates into an estimated excess of 46 deaths during the crisis period.
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Communicable diseases – such as HIV, tuberculosis and pneumonia – also showed a relevant increase: 10% more compared to the baseline, with an estimated excess of 48 cases, the largest increase in absolute terms. Added to these are chronic respiratory diseases, such as COPD and asthma, with an increase of 12.8% and 19 additional deaths, and neurological diseases, such as epilepsy and Parkinson’s, which registered an increase of 17.5%, equivalent to 21 more deaths. In total, care-sensitive causes accumulated an estimated excess of 134 deaths.
The territorial analysis shows that the impact was not homogeneous. Cali concentrated the greatest excess mortality, with 71 additional deaths and an increase of 10.5%, mainly due to respiratory causes, which grew by 22%. Palmira registered an increase of 16.7% and 36 excess deaths, with a 60% increase in respiratory causes. Cartago presented one of the highest percentage changes, with a 29% increase and 34 additional deaths, while respiratory causes shot up by 140%. Tuluá and Seville also showed significant increases, especially associated with respiratory diseases. Together, the ten municipalities with the greatest impact concentrated an estimated excess of 176 deaths.
Report on mortality of Nueva EPS members in Valle del Cauca. Photo:Private file
The report highlights that the consistency of the increase in respiratory causes in almost all the municipalities analyzed suggests possible interruptions in care, such as failures in the supply of inhalers, home oxygen, access to nebulizations, timely hospitalization.
Another relevant finding is related to oncological care. The document identifies six types of cancer in which the mortality of Nueva EPS members increased during the crisis period, while the same behavior was not observed in the other EPSs. The most notable case was ovarian cancer, which registered an increase of 37% in Nueva EPS, in contrast to a reduction of 32% in other insurers. Breast cancer also showed a statistically significant differential, with a p value of 0.043.
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Overall, the report concludes that the RUAF data show a differential deterioration in the mortality indicators of Nueva EPS in Valle del Cauca during the crisis period, particularly in medical causes associated with continuity of care. Although the document is limited to statistical analysis, the results reinforce concern about the impact that failures in service delivery can have on the health and survival of enrollees.
EDWIN CAICEDO
Environment and Health Journalist
@CaicedoUcros
date:2026-02-11 18:25:00
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