Dmitry Glukhovsky: Exile, Censorship, and the Future of Russia

Dmitry Glukhovsky, the acclaimed author of the Metro novels, has turn into a prominent voice of dissent against the Putin regime. Currently living in exile, Glukhovsky was sentenced to eight and a half years in prison in absentia for speaking out against the war in Ukraine. His work, often described as dystopian, increasingly reflects the realities of modern Russia, prompting him to contemplate a future where the country is fragmented and diminished.

A Probable Future: The Dismantling of Russia

Glukhovsky believes a likely future for Russia involves disintegration, a fear shared by many within the country and previously a concern of Putin’s government. He suggests the possibility of Siberia breaking away from Moscow, potentially falling under Chinese influence, leading to a fragmentation similar to the fall of the Soviet Union, but on a larger scale. This scenario would return Russia to the borders of Muscovy from five centuries ago, before its imperial expansion.

The War in Ukraine as a Catalyst

According to Glukhovsky, Putin initiated the war in Ukraine to counter doubts about Russia’s future and to project an image of strength. He argues that the war was intended to distract from Russia’s weaknesses and quell potential separatist movements within the country. His novel, The Outpost, serves as a metaphorical tale about the present and a potentially near future for Russia.

Historical Amnesia and the Spread of Hate Speech

A recurring theme in Glukhovsky’s analysis is the issue of historical amnesia within Russia. He points to the selective teaching of history, where events like the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact are downplayed or omitted to present Russia solely as a victim. This denial of historical responsibility, he argues, has contributed to justifying the current war in Ukraine. He similarly draws a parallel between the spread of hate speech in Russia and the rise of populism and far-right figures in the United States, noting how the rehabilitation of hatred was necessary to justify the invasion of Ukraine and normalize violence.

Russia and China: A Complex Relationship

The relationship between Russia and China is described as “schizophrenic.” While Russian elites are increasingly drawn to China’s technological advancements and economic opportunities, there is also a deep-seated fear of Chinese expansionism, particularly in Siberia. The FSB reportedly views China as the main threat to Russia.

Sanctions and the Russian Economy

Glukhovsky believes that economic sanctions are impacting Russia’s military capacity, though they haven’t yet led to widespread hunger or revolution. He notes that a significant portion of the state budget is being diverted to the war effort, leading to increased taxes and business closures. However, Russians have historically demonstrated an ability to adapt to economic hardship.

The Role of Mercenaries and Regime Trust

The Russian government’s reliance on mercenaries, rather than a second wave of mobilization, indicates a lack of trust in its own citizens. The regime prefers to employ contracted soldiers, minimizing reliance on citizens motivated by ideological conviction.

Continued Relevance in Russia

Despite the political climate, Glukhovsky’s novels remain available in Russia, as long as they are metaphorical and do not directly address current events. He has also made his works freely available online to circumvent potential censorship. However, other authors, like Boris Akunin, have faced bans for openly criticizing the war.

Glukhovsky’s work serves as a stark warning about the dangers of historical revisionism, hate speech, and authoritarianism, offering a critical perspective on the trajectory of modern Russia.