Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on the limited number of publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million in January, down 8.0% from December’s preliminary pace and down 2.2% from last January’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this January’s lower business day count compared to last January’s. Adverse weather in the latter part of January across much of the country probably impacted closed sales last month.

Note that the January NAR release will incorporate revised seasonal factors.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.0% from a year earlier.

CR Note: Lawler’s estimate is based on less local data than previous years since the NAR is releasing sales data earlier in the month this year. The NAR is scheduled to report January sales tomorrow, and the consensus is for 4.25 million SAAR, up from 4.09 million in January 2025, but down from 4.35 million in December. The consensus seems too high.