Nine Million Early Voters Cast Ballots in Midterms
This early total surpasses typical pacing and puts the projected final turnout near 100 million total voters, matching the scale of 2018. Nearly half of all voters used early channels in the 2022 midterms, and the current pace suggests strong early participation despite legal and political battles over mail-in and in-person voting rules.
Donald Trump and his allies have consistently targeted early and mail-in voting, repeatedly characterizing the system as a tool for Democratic manipulation. Despite labeling mail-in voting vulnerable to fraud, Trump himself has utilized remote mail-in voting from Florida. His campaign and allied lawmakers advanced the SAVE Act in Congress to require proof of citizenship for registration and sought complete state voter rolls from federal authorities. Thirty states refused the request, and courts subsequently ruled in favor of those states, blocking federal demands for unverified voter lists.
Legal Battles Over Mail-In Ballots Blocked in Court
Federal attempts to restrict mail-in voting have faced widespread defeat in the courts. A legal team led by civil rights lawyer Marc Elias filed 90 lawsuits across 41 states, successfully halting federal restrictions on mail-in ballots through the judicial process. These court victories have kept mail-in voting channels open and accessible for millions of voters across the country.
Meanwhile, federal agencies have pursued administrative checks on voter rolls. However, an October 15 investigation by The New York Times found that no state had brought criminal charges against more than 25 non-citizen voters in recent federal and local elections. In Nevada, DHS officials claimed 16,000 non-citizens were registered, but local authorities received only 185 names to check, all of whom turned out to be U.S. citizens.
Democrats Lead in National Polls and Early Voting
National polling averages show Democrats leading Republicans by 11 percentage points overall. In Florida, a stronghold for the Make America Great Again movement and Trump’s home state, Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds faces a competitive race to succeed Ron DeSantis. In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico has pressured incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, raising Democratic prospects in a traditionally deep-red state.
TargetSmart expert Tom Bonier reported that among 15 states with early voting party data available, Democrats lead Republicans in early turnout in 14 of those states, outpacing their 2022 margins. Bonier noted that Republicans maintain a significant financial advantage in campaign funds and will outspend Democrats on negative advertising targeting conservative bases ahead of Election Day. Professor McDonald observed that Republicans have adopted a defensive posture, shifting campaign resources away from North Carolina and Georgia to reinforce positions in Nebraska and Kansas.
Post-Election Counting Challenges Lie Ahead
Marc Elias warned during an October 19 press briefing that election battles will shift from pre-voting rules to post-voting counts and result confirmations after November 3. He cautioned that some Republican-controlled counties may refuse to officially certify local election results. Polling stations in tight races will also see federal personnel deployments, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, National Guard troops, and DHS staff tasked with checking voter rolls.
Turnout among key demographics shows high engagement, with early voting data from North Carolina and Georgia indicating higher-than-average participation among Black voters. Latino voter behavior remains a crucial variable, as cost-of-living increases create friction with the incumbent administration, a shift McDonald notes will impact Florida, Texas, and Georgia.
Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Midterm Early Voting
How many states still require an excuse for early voting?
Only Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire do not offer regular early voting without an excuse, requiring voters in those states to provide a valid reason to cast a ballot before Election Day.
What legal challenges are currently affecting mail-in ballots?
Marc Elias and his legal team filed 90 lawsuits across 41 states to block federal efforts that sought to restrict mail-in voting speed and delivery scope, successfully halting those restrictions in court.
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