Tajikistan GDP growth forecast raised to 7.8% for 2026 by EFSD
The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development has raised its forecast for Tajikistan’s gross domestic product growth in 2026 to 7.8%, up from a previous projection of 7.1%. Interfax reported that the fund released the updated figures in its latest Regional Economic Outlook.
Growth drivers and remittance pressures
Assuming economic momentum continues through the second half of 2026, growth will outpace earlier estimates. However, the EFSD cautions that a weakening Russian ruble, which began depreciating in August 2026, will reduce incoming migrant remittances. High fuel and lubricant prices alongside supply disruptions are also expected to slow down growth momentum.
Remittances from Russia remain a primary driver of domestic demand in Tajikistan. The EFSD projects these funds to drop from 54.5% of GDP in 2025 to 43.2% in 2026, 38% in 2027, and 32.8% by 2029. Tighter migration policies in Russia and a weaker ruble are driving this decline. Analysts calculate that a one-percentage-point drop in remittances relative to GDP reduces Tajikistan’s overall GDP growth by approximately 0.18 percentage points.
Current account and inflation outlook
The reduction in remittances will shrink Tajikistan’s current account surplus from 17.1% of GDP in 2025 to 7.1% in 2026. This downward trend is projected to persist, potentially resulting in a current account deficit of 1% of GDP by 2029.
Meanwhile, the 2026 inflation forecast has been revised down from 6.3% to 5.2%. This downward revision occurs despite mounting inflationary pressures caused by reduced petroleum product supplies from Russia. The EFSD maintains its inflation forecast for 2027 through 2029 at a steady 5% annually, aligning with the National Bank of Tajikistan’s target. To manage these conditions, the fund expects the country’s refinancing rate to increase from 7% to 8% per annum in 2027 and remain there throughout the forecast period.
Comparative projections for Tajikistan’s economy
Different financial institutions and government bodies project varying trajectories for the Tajik economy through the end of the decade. The EFSD sets its longer-term forecasts at 6.7% for 2027 and 6% for 2028.
By contrast, the World Bank released an updated outlook last week raising its Tajikistan GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 6.5% to 7.5%. The World Bank also adjusted its 2027 forecast from 5% to 6.2%, and its 2028 forecast from 4.8% to 5.6%. Meanwhile, the government of Tajikistan maintains even higher internal projections, anticipating economic growth of 8.5% in 2026 and 8.4% in 2027. These official projections follow actual recorded GDP growth of 8.4% in both 2024 and 2025, alongside an 8.2% year-on-year expansion during the first half of 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Tajikistan expecting a decline in migrant remittances?
The anticipated drop stems from a tighter Russian migration policy and the depreciation of the Russian ruble, which began in August 2026. Remittances are expected to fall from 54.5% of GDP in 2025 down to 32.8% by 2029.
How does a drop in remittances affect Tajikistan’s economy?
Remittances serve as a primary driver of domestic demand. The EFSD estimates that a one-percentage-point decrease in remittances relative to GDP reduces overall GDP growth by approximately 0.18 percentage points.
What are the inflation expectations for Tajikistan?
The EFSD revised its 2026 inflation forecast down to 5.2% from 6.3%, despite reduced petroleum supplies from Russia. Projections for 2027 through 2029 remain steady at 5% annually, matching the target set by the National Bank of Tajikistan.
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