El Niño Alert: Potential for ‘Super’ Event This Summer Could Drive Global Temperatures Higher

Forecasters are predicting a potentially strong El Niño event this summer, raising concerns about a possible surge in global temperatures. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced a 62% chance of El Niño developing between June and August ¹.

Understanding El Niño and La Niña

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern characterized by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean ⁴. During El Niño, warmer waters accumulate in the eastern equatorial Pacific, influencing the jet stream and altering weather patterns worldwide.

Currently, the tropical Pacific is transitioning away from La Niña, the cool phase of ENSO, where sea surface temperatures are at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) below the long-term average. La Niña is expected to end in the coming weeks as ocean temperatures rise ¹.

What is a ‘Super’ El Niño?

If sea surface temperatures reach and remain at least 0.9°F (0.5°C) above the long-term average, El Niño will be declared. There is a possibility this El Niño could intensify into a “super El Niño,” defined as sea surface temperatures exceeding 3.6°F (2°C) above the long-term average ¹. AccuWeather estimates a 15% chance of a super El Niño developing by the end of the hurricane season in November.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives a 1-in-3 chance of a strong El Niño emerging between October and December, but notes the potential strength remains “exceptionally uncertain” ¹.

Potential Impacts of El Niño

• North America: Warmer and drier conditions are likely in the northern U.S., while the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. May experience increased flooding risk.
• Hurricane Season: El Niño typically strengthens hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic, potentially leading to a less active Atlantic hurricane season.
• Global Temperatures: El Niño is expected to contribute to rising global temperatures. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather notes that while 2026 temperatures are unlikely to surpass 2024 (the hottest year on record), 2027 could see record-breaking heat due to the historical lag between ENSO and surface temperatures ¹.

Historical Context

The last El Niño occurred between May 2023 and March 2024. While sea surface temperatures briefly exceeded the super El Niño threshold, they did not remain high enough for a long enough period to qualify. The last confirmed super El Niño event occurred from 2015-2016.

The 2023-2024 El Niño contributed to record-breaking heat, with 2024 currently being the hottest year on record.

Important Considerations

It’s crucial to remember that ENSO is just one factor influencing global weather and climate. The planet is already warming due to ongoing climate change and this warming trend will continue regardless of the ENSO phase.