Strong El Niño Likely to Develop, Potentially Driving Record Temperatures in 2027

A potentially strong El Niño weather pattern is expected to emerge this summer and persist through the remainder of the year, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Forecasters estimate a 62% chance of El Niño developing between June and August.

What is El Niño?

El Niño occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warm ocean water to move eastward from the Pacific Ocean toward the Americas. Climate scientist Daniel Swain, with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, notes that “even though the evidence is still early, this could be a very significant event in 2026 and lingering into 2027.”

Global Temperature Impacts

A strong El Niño is anticipated to drive up average global temperatures. Historically, the warmest years on record have coincided with El Niño events, as the pattern is characterized by unusually warm water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño functions to release heat from the deeper oceans, which has been temporarily stored there.

2023 was the hottest year ever recorded, and 2024 surpassed that record. Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at Stripe, suggests that “if a strong El Niño does develop, it’ll boost temperatures in 2026 a bit, but it will have a particularly large effect on temperatures in 2027 and position that year on track to probably be the warmest year on record after 2024.”

It’s important to note that El Niño is a natural climate fluctuation and is not the primary driver of global warming. Human-caused global warming, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels, is the main cause of the planet’s increasing temperatures. Even without El Niño, recent years have been among the hottest on record.

Regional Weather Effects

El Niño also influences regional weather patterns. The Southern United States often experiences increased rainfall and cooler temperatures, which can help alleviate droughts and reduce wildfire activity. However, the Southwest is currently experiencing a severe drought that will not be fully resolved by a single year of wetter weather, according to a recent analysis by the National Integrated Drought Information System.

Conversely, El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean, often leading to less severe hurricane seasons. However, this protection is limited, as a single major storm can cause catastrophic damage, and rising Atlantic temperatures due to climate change are providing more fuel for storms that do form. El Niño has no impact on storms forming in the Pacific Ocean.

Swain emphasizes that the regional patterns associated with El Niño are its most dangerous effects, leading to “more heat waves and tangibly warmer temperatures, but maybe the more important thing is what it means for everything else: more energy for storms, heavier downpours, more intensive droughts, more extreme wildfires.”