Ethiopia faces renewed fears of widespread civil conflict as fighting intensifies between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), threatening to upend the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria Agreement.
Renewed military engagements across the Afar and Amhara regions have triggered severe humanitarian strains, displacing residents and cutting off vital transport corridors. The escalation follows the formation of an opposition coalition aimed at unseating the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, drawing concern from international observers who remember the devastating 2020–2022 war that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.
TPLF Advances and the Formation of a New Coalition
On Sunday, September 20, 2026, seven armed factions from across Ethiopia—including the TPLF—announced the creation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The coalition stated its primary objective is the removal of the federal government in Addis Ababa.
Days later, on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, TPLF fighters seized control of three local airports from federal police. In response, state-owned Ethiopian Airlines halted all flights to the affected areas, citing the deteriorating security conditions. TPLF forces subsequently pressed into the Afar and Amhara regions. Humanitarian sources in Afar reported heavy artillery fire on Thursday, September 24, 2026, as Tigrayan units attempted to capture the town of Yallo near the regional border. Commercial flights to the historic city of Lalibela were similarly suspended due to fierce battles nearby.
Humanitarian Toll and Supply Shortages
Inside the Tigray region, civilians have rushed to stockpile food supplies and cash amid growing anxiety over a potential return to total blockades. Residents in Adigrat, located near the Eritrean border, reported widespread panic buying that has left market shelves bare.
Essential medicines remain critically scarce and prohibitively expensive, leaving many families struggling to secure daily necessities. Amanuel Assefa, Vice President of the TPLF, confirmed the escalation in an interview with AFP, stating that the parties are now engaged in open warfare alongside local armed groups in Afar and Amhara.
Shifting Alliances and Regional Dynamics
Foreign security sources reported that TPLF forces captured the Afar border town of Abala on Wednesday, alongside additional territorial gains in nearby districts. Fighting has also concentrated around Weldiya in the Amhara region, which serves as a critical gateway toward the capital.
The Ethiopian military acknowledged the clashes publicly for the first time on Thursday, with the armed forces claiming to have foiled an attack and killed, injured, or captured more than 500 opposing fighters.
Analysts note that the current conflict features a dramatically altered geopolitical situation compared to the 2020–2022 conflict. During the previous war, Eritrea and the Fano militia fought alongside federal troops against Tigrayan forces. Current reports suggest the new alliance has coordinated with foreign backing for months, testing the durability of the Pretoria Agreement that had kept the peace for some time.