Five Key Events for the Global Commodity Market in 2025

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Summary of Key Market Trends – February 5, 2026

This report highlights key trends in coffee, soybean, and silver markets as of February 5, 2026.

1. Coffee Market:

* Robusta: Prices have stabilized due to the year-end harvest in Vietnam.
* Arabica: Remains high (around $8,000/tonne) due to ongoing supply shortages in Brazil and Colombia,and record-low EU stocks.

2. Soybean Market:

* Trade Tensions: A US-China agreement to resume soybean exports (after a 6-month halt) substantially impacted the market.
* Price Surge: China’s commitment to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans caused prices to jump over 6% to $425/tonne (highest in over a year) in November 2025. this triggered sales from US farmers.
* Increased Imports: Vietnam significantly increased US soybean imports in the second half of 2025, with total imports up 24% compared to 2024, following MOUs worth $3 billion.

3. Silver Market:

* “Supercycle” & Price Surge: Silver experienced a dramatic price increase, soaring over 26% in 30 days (140% annually), becoming the best-performing asset in the market.
* Record Trading volume: Transaction volume reached a record high of VND17 trillion on December 23, with an annual average daily value up 46% to VND7.5 trillion.
* Investment Shift: Driven by concerns about rising debt, fiscal deficits, and potential currency devaluation, investors are shifting away from government bonds towards silver (and gold).
* Supply Shortage: the silver market is facing its fifth consecutive year of supply shortage, with production remaining flat while investment demand is strong. Storage facilities are experiencing liquidity issues and record rental costs.
* Central Bank activity: Central banks are increasing gold and silver purchases to diversify foreign exchange reserves. ETFs also increased silver holdings by 18% as of early november.

the report points to a volatile market landscape driven by geopolitical factors (trade tensions), supply chain issues (coffee, silver), and shifting investor sentiment (silver).

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