Gaza Death Toll Significantly Higher Than Reported, Lancet Study Finds

More than 75,000 Palestinians were killed in the first 15 months of Israel’s military assault in Gaza, a figure substantially higher than the 49,000 deaths previously announced by local health officials, according to a new study published in The Lancet Global Health medical journal. The research, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and led by Michael Spagat, a professor at Royal Holloway, University of London, provides the first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip.

Study Findings and Methodology

The peer-reviewed study, published on Wednesday, February 19, 2026, found that women, children, and the elderly comprised approximately 56.2% of violent deaths in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025. This demographic breakdown aligns with reporting from Gaza’s health ministry, which the United Nations has consistently deemed reliable. The research involved surveying 2,000 Palestinian households over seven days starting on December 30, 2024.

Researchers calculated mortality estimates as weighted sums, with each household representative of a larger segment of the Gaza Strip population. The study estimates that 3-4% of the Gaza Strip’s population had been killed violently as of January 5, 2025, with a substantial number of additional non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict.

Non-Violent Deaths and Overall Impact

In addition to the 75,200 violent deaths, the study estimates approximately 16,300 non-violent deaths occurred during the first 15 months of the war. These deaths were attributed to disease, pre-existing conditions, accidents, and other causes not directly related to combat. The combined total represents a significant human cost from the conflict.

Confirmation of Health Ministry Data

The Lancet researchers assert that their analysis contradicts previous claims of inflated figures and suggests that the Gaza health ministry’s numbers are, if anything, conservative, even under the extreme conditions of the conflict. A previous statistical analysis published in The Lancet last year indicated the health ministry likely undercounted deaths by around 40% during the first nine months of the war. This new research suggests a similar undercount.

Context of the Conflict

The current conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants killed more than 1,200 people and took over 250 hostages in southern Israel, according to Israeli tallies. Hostages and the remains of those killed in captivity were later released during ceasefires. Hamas has confirmed the deaths of military leaders but rarely discloses fatalities among its fighters.

Israeli Response and U.N. Assessment

Whereas Israel has previously questioned the Gaza health ministry’s figures, citing Hamas control, a senior Israeli security officer reportedly told Israeli journalists last month that the figures were broadly accurate. However, the army later stated this view did not reflect official data. The U.N. Continues to deem the Gaza health ministry’s figures reliable.

This study provides crucial independent verification of the devastating impact of the conflict on the civilian population of Gaza.