Global coffee prices climbed across major trading exchanges for the week ending October 5, 2026, driven by dwindling old-crop inventories and mounting concerns over the incoming El Niño weather pattern. London Robusta futures for November 2026 delivery rose 3%, or $102 per ton, to settle at $3,469 per ton, while New York Arabica futures for March 2027 delivery advanced 3.4% to reach 280.5 cents per pound, according to market data.
Short Covering and Shrinking Inventories Drive Market Gains
Recent price recoveries stem primarily from short covering as market participants adjust positions. Data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows speculators trimmed their short positions in ICE U.S. Arabica coffee futures during the week ending September 29, dropping net short positions by 2,978 contracts to 3,493 contracts.
Underpinning the price strength is a fundamental supply gap. Old-crop inventories are largely exhausted, while fresh crop supplies remain weeks away from volume distribution. Certified Arabica stocks in New York exchange warehouses dropped by 290 bags to 260,364 bags by September 30, marking a decline of more than 40% since the start of the year. Certified Robusta stocks on the London exchange fell by 32,000 bags to 864,000 bags.
El Niño Threats Loom Over Brazilian and Asian Production
Market attention remains fixed on meteorological conditions in Brazil, where regular rainfall is vital for coffee flowering. The primary wildcard remains the El Niño phenomenon, projected to rank among the strongest in history. The U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center estimates a 75% probability that El Niño conditions will persist through early 2027.
Severe weather events triggered by El Niño—including floods, droughts, and temperature swings—threaten agricultural yields across Asia, Central America, and South America. The intensity and exact timing of these weather disruptions will dictate production outcomes for the upcoming harvest seasons.
Vietnamese coffee prices rise as harvest season begins
In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices hovered near 94,000 VND per kilogram, moving upward slightly by 200 VND in key growing regions such as Dak Lak, Gia Lai, and Dak Nong. Despite the adjustment, domestic gains remain modest compared to international futures surges. Trading activity in Vietnam stayed subdued as previous-season stocks cleared out.
While Vietnam officially inaugurates its new coffee harvest season in early October, traders note that large volumes of fresh beans will likely not reach the market before November. Government statistics show Vietnam exported 1.45 million tons of coffee in the first nine months of 2026, representing a 16.2% increase from the same period last year. However, total export revenue dipped 7% to $6.6 billion due to shifting market dynamics.
Low inventories and El Niño risk coffee production
Why are global coffee inventories dropping so sharply in 2026?
Old-crop agricultural supplies are largely exhausted across major growing regions, and fresh crop arrivals remain weeks away. Certified Arabica stocks in New York fell by over 40% since the beginning of the year to 260,364 bags by September 30.
How is the El Niño phenomenon affecting the coffee market?
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 75% chance that a powerful El Niño will persist into early 2027, risking droughts, floods, and temperature shifts that could severely constrain production in Asia, Central America, and South America.
What were the specific price changes on the London and New York exchanges?
London Robusta futures for November 2026 delivery rose 3% to $3,469 per ton, while New York Arabica futures for March 2027 delivery increased 3.4% to 280.5 cents per pound.
What is the current status of the Vietnamese coffee harvest and export volume?
Vietnam exported 1.45 million tons of coffee during the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2% year-over-year, though total export revenue decreased 7% to $6.6 billion. Domestic trading remains quiet as the new harvest season begins, with bulk supply anticipated in November.
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