Travelers face changing holiday airfare patterns this season as Google releases five years of aggregated Google Flights data to pinpoint when ticket prices hit their lowest averages. According to a Fox Business report, domestic flights generally reach their lowest price 39 days before departure, while international routes bottom out much earlier.
The publishing of the search data addresses the annual dilemma of whether to purchase holiday itineraries immediately or wait for potential price drops. James Byers, Google’s group product manager for Search, noted that booking early remains the safest bet for fixed itineraries, while flexible travelers can use historical booking trends to target lower fares.
Thanksgiving and Christmas booking windows shift earlier
For Thanksgiving travelers, historical trends show that airfares typically reach their lowest price 34 days before departure, with a low-price window spanning 21 to 57 days out. This places the cheapest booking period firmly in October. Christmas flights hit their lowest price an average of 56 days before departure, with a range of 33 to 67 days. Byers stated that this year’s Christmas low point arrives five days earlier than last year, pushing the best deals into late October and mid-November.
Our best recommendation is to book your holiday flights ASAP,
Byers wrote in the published analysis, emphasizing that the sweet spot for low fares has shifted ahead of previous seasonal patterns.
International flights hit lowest prices 89 days before departure
International travel requires a significantly longer runway for securing the best rates. Google’s analysis indicates that international flights generally hit their lowest average price 89 days before departure. However, because the price drop remains minimal across the 50-to-133-day window, the company advises booking international trips as soon as dates are confirmed.
Specific international destinations show varying booking sweet spots:
- Europe: Lowest prices arrive 90 days out, with a low-price range beginning 49 days or more before departure.
- Mexico and the Caribbean: Fares reach their lowest prices 43 days before departure, within a range of 24 to 69 days.
- Spring Break: Airfares for March or April trips hit their lowest point 50 days before departure, a week earlier than the previous year.
- Summer Vacation: Travelers heading out in July or August can wait later, with lowest prices arriving 21 days before departure.
Frequently Asked Questions about holiday flight bookings
Why is the booking window for Christmas flights earlier this year?
Google’s historical flight data indicates that Christmas airfares reach their lowest average price 56 days before departure, which is five days earlier than last year. This shifts the optimal purchasing window into the span between late October and mid-November.
How far in advance should travelers book domestic flights?
Domestic flights hit their lowest average price 39 days before departure, according to five years of aggregated data from Google Flights. The broader low-price range stretches from 22 to 57 days out.
Is it safe to wait for international flight prices to drop?
Waiting rarely pays off for European travel or general international routes. While international flights typically reach their lowest average price 89 days before departure, the price drop during the 50-to-133-day window is insignificant, prompting recommendations to book immediately.
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