Hurricane Lowell is tracking across the Central Pacific and threatening the western Hawaiian Islands with potential major hurricane impacts by early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center and Weather.com. Forecasters warn that the powerful storm could bring dangerous storm surge, high winds, and heavy rainfall to portions of the archipelago, particularly Kauai and Ni’ihau, as early as Monday night.
Current Intensity and Location of Hurricane Lowell
Lowell is located approximately 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, moving west or just south of due west, according to Weather.com. These readings support lowering the initial intensity to 155 mph, making Lowell a solid Category 4 hurricane after previously achieving Category 5 status during a period of rapid intensification earlier in the week.
However, forecasters expect a gradual weakening trend to begin as vertical wind shear increases and the hurricane starts to entrain dry mid-level air.
Forecast Track and Timing for the Hawaiian Islands
Lowell is expected to begin slowing down as the weekend progresses, ahead of a significant shift in the regional steering pattern. According to the National Hurricane Center, a mid- to upper-level low is projected to move south to southeastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands, breaking down the subtropical ridge that has been steering Lowell westward.
This atmospheric shift will cause Lowell to turn sharply northward or north-northeastward by Sunday and accelerate. While some computer models show a potential northwest track that would keep the storm further west and reduce impacts, others indicate a more eastward track that would significantly increase severe weather risks.
Expected Rainfall, Surf, and Flood Impacts
Maui can expect 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals reaching 8 inches, while the remaining islands will likely see 1 to 2 inches.
All accumulated rainfall carries a significant risk of triggering flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in steep terrain. Additionally, swells generated by the hurricane are already producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across portions of the islands, with conditions expected to worsen early next week.
Preparation and Official Guidance for Residents
Local officials advise residents in the western Hawaiian Islands to review their hurricane readiness plans and monitor updates as watches will likely be issued. Residents are encouraged to follow all guidance provided by local emergency management authorities as the storm approaches.
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