France‘s Mounting debt: A Systemic Blindness?

I believe a collective blindness has taken hold. No one intentionally desired this outcome. Even after 1995, when we first voted on an annual finance law for social security, we failed to address the State’s social debt. We approve budgets and deficits, effectively accepting that each new deficit will add to the cumulative deficit as 1974, which is financed by debt.Consequently, there is no real debate.everyone strives to do their best, claiming they did all they could at the end of their term. Their successor promises to end this, yet also positions themselves as the inheritor of all political traditions – both right and left – which prioritize expanding social rights for the French people.

Are Governments Deceiving Themselves with Growth Projections?

The French political system is both Keynesian and idealistic. It relies on the assumption that growth will stem from recovery plans, despite evidence that these plans rarely succeed. It’s also idealistic because the Social Republic – as defined in the Constitution – continually aims for social progress, meaning increased redistribution and solidarity. This explains why France’s social protection system is more redistributive today than it was in the 1960s and 1970s.

Have Political Shifts Been Ineffective?

Political alternations have proven ineffective in addressing this problem.

Does This Analysis Fuel Populist and Extremist Rhetoric?

No, because extremist parties make the same mistake. No party challenges the welfare state. Actually, as the welfare state expands, so do extremist movements and radicalism, fueled by new, unsustainable promises.

What Common Factors Defined Years of Budgetary Rigor?

Years like 1989, 2000, 2006, and 2018 shared a combination of a committed finance minister and a favorable macroeconomic climate.

Is France Facing a Crisis Similar to Portugal in 2009?

France is currently in a comparable situation to Portugal in 2009. The solutions implemented by our neighbors were drastic: a moratorium on new rights, an increased retirement age, and the elimination of public holidays. However,even minor changes in france can trigger notable unrest.

What Does the Future Hold?

Eventually, a major shift will occur. We are on track to reach 4,000 billion in debt, and something will inevitably happen to halt its dizzying growth.

Should We Expect a Social Crisis?

The form this will take in France remains unknown, but it will happen, as it has in other European countries. We can anticipate impacts on retirement age and other key areas.