“2025 was a good year for insurers with noticeable premium growth – and that in an overall weak economic environment,” said GDV President Norbert Rollinger in Berlin last week.
The industry-wide premium growth in 2025 was reportedly driven by inflation-related premium adjustments, a “strong single premium business” in life insurance and increasing premium income in private health insurance.
“The solid growth in 2025 must not obscure the fact that the scope is becoming smaller,” said Rollinger. “If less is built, invested and consumed, this will also affect the insurance industry in the long term.”
2026 forecast “cautious”
The outlook for 2026 is already more cautious. The background is the “structural weakness of the German economy,” which is increasingly slowing growth and employment, “even if higher government spending has a stabilizing effect in the short term.”
Specifically, the GDV forecasts an increase of 5.2 percent in property and casualty insurance, an increase of 10.5 percent in private health insurance (PKV) and an increase of 1.1 percent in life insurance for 2026. The latter remains heavily dependent on the single premium business, while regular contributions are declining slightly.
Damage and accidents spurred by the motor vehicle division
“After several difficult years,” overall property and casualty insurance increased noticeably again in 2025. Premium income rose by 7.7 percent to 99.7 billion euros. The main driver was motor vehicle insurance, with a premium increase of 13.4 percent. The repeated premium adjustments were due to “inflation-related catch-up effects and rising repair costs,” as it was officially said.
The lack of major natural disasters in 2025 also had a positive impact on the claims balances of many insurers. The motor vehicle division achieved a positive underwriting result with black figures for the first time in several years. In the property and casualty sector, however, one should not trust that everything will continue like this in the future and that no extreme natural events will occur in the coming years, says Rollinger. Because: “Climate risks will continue to increase in the long term.”
Again criticism of ET and workshop costs
For 2026, the GDV still expects premium growth of 5.2 percent in the property and casualty area. “However, spare parts and workshop costs remain challenging and drive up prices,” it was noted: “Since 2015, spare parts prices have risen by more than 80 percent – with consumer prices increasing by around 30 percent.”
More elemental contracts vs. future natural damage increase
But the greater spread of elementary coverage also has a growth-promoting effect. The GDV President once again followed the positive aspect with a clear warning about the volatility of the climate: “All of this must not obscure the fact that climate damage caused by extreme weather events will increasingly be reflected in the loss balance.”
Higher contributions to health and life insurance
In the other two main lines, the situation is as follows: Private health insurance (PKV) recorded premium growth of 7.3 percent to 54.4 billion euros in 2025. At the same time, service expenditure rose by 7.1 percent to 42.1 billion euros – particularly as a result of medical progress and the general rise in healthcare costs.
In life insurance, single premiums are driving growth (+ 16.9 percent). The area increased by 5.1 percent to 99.4 billion euros in 2025. Falling inflation, rising real wages, stable long-term interest rates and the increased maximum interest rate made savings products more attractive again.
Business with current contributions, on the other hand, remained almost stable (+0.1 percent). For 2026, the GDV forecasts a moderate increase of 1.1 percent, supported by further increases in single premiums (+4.8 percent), while regular contributions are expected to decline by 0.8 percent.
date: 2026-02-09 01:15:00
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