US-Israel War with Iran Draws in Regional Actors, Threatening Wider Conflict

The conflict between the US and Israel with Iran is intensifying, drawing in a wider range of armed actors across the Middle East and raising the risk of a broader regional war. Iran-backed militias are escalating attacks against Israel, the US, and their allies in response to the ongoing offensive against Tehran. Iraq has emerged as a key front in this escalating conflict, marked by both overt and clandestine operations.

Escalating Attacks and Proxy Warfare

Militias in Iraq have launched dozens of attacks targeting Israel and US bases in Jordan and Iraq since the war began on Saturday. These groups have too targeted infrastructure belonging to Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq. The US and Israel are responding with airstrikes and special forces operations aimed at degrading the capabilities of pro-Iranian militias within Iraq.

Iraq, a historical proxy battleground between the US, its allies, and Iran since the 2003 US-led invasion, is attempting to avoid direct involvement in the current conflict. The militias, largely recruited from Iraq’s Shia majority, operate under the direction of senior officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

US Concerns and Regional Closures

The US has closed its embassies in Riyadh and Kuwait due to security concerns, with the Riyadh embassy reportedly hit by suspected Iranian drones. Non-emergency US government personnel and their families have been ordered to depart from Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Washington has warned Americans to leave the region.

Iranian Retaliation and Rising Death Toll

Iran is retaliating by targeting US bases and embassies across the Middle East, as well as oil refineries and tourist infrastructure. As of Tuesday, more than 787 people have been killed in Iran since the war began, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency. Israel has also launched simultaneous strikes on Tehran and Beirut, targeting Iranian military sites and Hezbollah.

Clandestine Operations and Potential Proxy Mobilization

A clandestine counteroffensive appears to be underway in Iraq, with militia bases south of Baghdad and near Nasariya and Basra coming under attack from small “suicide drones.” These attacks have reportedly killed at least 15 fighters, primarily from Kataib Hezbollah, a powerful Iraq-based pro-Iran group. Explosions have also been reported at militia bases in Iraq’s western Anbar province, and unexplained blasts have immobilized Iraqi government radar systems.

There are reports that US officials are considering mobilizing Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, potentially for an invasion of Iran’s north-west region. Attacks by an armed group affiliated with separatist movements among Iran’s Arab community against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in south-western Iran have been reported.

Regional Implications and the “Axis of Resistance”

Iran has invested heavily in a network of militant groups across the region to deter attacks on Iran and project influence. However, the so-called “axis of resistance” has been weakened by successive Israeli offensives, particularly following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Israel has launched a broad offensive in Lebanon after Hezbollah, a major Islamist movement with close ties to Iran, joined the conflict. While Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, both allies of Tehran, have so far remained on the sidelines, their potential involvement remains a concern.

Looking Ahead

The current conflict is driven by a complex interplay of survival calculations among regional actors. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and wider regional involvement. The actions of Iran-backed militias and the potential mobilization of proxy forces will be critical factors in determining the future trajectory of the conflict.