Trump Questions Why Iran Hasn’t ‘Capitulated’ Amidst Military Buildup and Nuclear Talks

As Iran and the United States prepare for a third round of talks in Geneva, a candid comment by the chief American negotiator, Steve Witkoff, underscores the depth of reciprocal misreadings that is keeping both sides far apart. The U.S. Military – with two aircraft carrier battle groups and scores of jet fighters and refueling tankers now deployed across the Middle East – has assembled the largest American fighting force since the 2003 Iraq invasion, albeit not one geared toward ground combat.

U.S. President Donald Trump says he wants Iran to dismantle, weaken, and limit its strategic capacities, and has threatened Iran with military strikes and even regime change if it does not accept his terms.

U.S. Pressure and Iran’s Defiance

Steve Witkoff told Fox News on February 22nd that President Trump was surprised that Iran had not yielded despite the mounting pressure. “I don’t aim for to use the word ‘frustrated,’” Mr. Witkoff said, after speaking with the president that morning. “He’s curious as to why they haven’t – I don’t want to use the word ‘capitulated’ – but why they haven’t capitulated,” he said. “Why, under this sort of pressure, with the amount of sea power, naval power that we have over there, why haven’t they come to us and said, ‘We profess that we don’t want a weapon, so here’s what we’re prepared to do?’”

On Tuesday, Iran hand-delivered a counterproposal to Omani negotiators, with options to limit its nuclear program. BBC News reports that the U.S. And its European allies suspect Iran of moving towards making a nuclear weapon, which Iran denies.

Reciprocal Misunderstandings

Analysts suggest that U.S. Expectations that military deployments alone can force the Islamic Republic to capitulate illustrate a fundamental misreading of Iran’s hard-line leadership. Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute, explained that “President Trump has a framework for how he conducts negotiations… There is an assumption that pressure applied [leads to] at least some form of retreat or concession from the other side.” However, Sabet argues that this approach may not operate with Iran, which is a “revolutionary anti-American state” with a “very high level of resolve.”

Iran seems to be approaching the Geneva talks as an opportunity to negotiate beneficial compensation – and prevent an attack – even as the U.S. Is delivering an ultimatum. Iran wants the U.S. Sanctions that have hammered its economy to be lifted, following economic grievances that sparked antiregime protests in late December, which were crushed in January. Human rights organizations report at least 7,000 people were killed during the crackdown.

Historical Context and Potential Outcomes

The dynamic resembles a high-stakes poker game, according to Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch for Israel Defense Intelligence. “Washington has raised the bet – deployments, public warnings, escalatory rhetoric – on the assumption that Tehran, facing weaker cards, will ultimately fold,” wrote Citrinowicz. “But Iran’s leadership operates under its own sunk-cost logic.”

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has a long history of resisting pressure. Arash Reisinezhad, a visiting professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, wrote in Foreign Policy that Khamenei will not accept “unconditional surrender” because, in his worldview, surrender is not a policy outcome. He believes that retreat under pressure invites further pressure, concession signals fragility, and fragility accelerates downfall.

In June 2026, Israel launched a surprise attack against Iran, triggering a 12-day war that saw Israel target Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure and assassinate senior commanders and scientists. The U.S. Joined the battle and struck Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities, effectively halting uranium enrichment. Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel in response, and a volley of missiles at an evacuated U.S. Base in Qatar.

Despite the U.S. Military buildup, Iran dismisses the destructive power of the American arsenal. The Guardian reports that Ayatollah Khamenei’s social media accounts recently posted an AI-created video of Iran destroying U.S. Warships, including the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier.

Farzan Sabet in Geneva notes that even if the Trump administration makes commitments, that does not preclude a future American attack, or an Israeli attack on Iran’s missile program or proxies.