Iran’s IRGC Resilience Amidst US-Led Strikes
Recent ballistic missile and drone strikes by the United States and its allies have inflicted damage on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but have fallen short of crippling its missile forces. Initial expectations of a swift disruption to Iran’s capabilities following the commencement of hostilities on February 28th have not materialized, revealing a more resilient adversary than anticipated.
A War Unlike Any Other
A recent assessment by Bloomberg highlights that the conflict with Iran presents a unique challenge for the US military, as attempts to rapidly control the situation through overwhelming force have not yielded the desired results. This is largely attributed to Iran’s extensive and well-dispersed missile and drone arsenals, effectively concealed across the country.
Ceasefire Attempts and Iranian Resolve
On March 11th, Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy for the Middle East, reportedly requested a ceasefire from Iran through multiple channels. However, Iran refused, suggesting the US may be seeking to use the ceasefire to prepare for a future attack. Ali Fadawi, a senior IRGC officer, commented on these ceasefire calls, stating that US President Donald Trump’s desire for a ceasefire indicates the US is not winning the war and warning of “new surprises” in the coming days.
Depleting Interceptor Missiles
Analysts are increasingly concerned about the depletion of missile defense systems belonging to the US and its strategic partners. Kelly Grieco, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, noted, “This is the first war where the adversary has these capabilities.” Mark Kancian, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described the situation as a “race” to determine whose ammunition would run out first.
The Cost of Interception
Given the significant disparity between Iran’s missile arsenal and the interceptor capabilities of the US and its allies, the focus has shifted to destroying missiles on the ground. The US and its partners likely expended over 1,000 PAC-3 interceptor missiles from the MIM-104 Patriot system in the first days of the war alone. These missiles cost between $3-4 million each, and are produced at a rate of approximately 500 per year.
Redeployment and Shortages
The US has been forced to withdraw interceptor missiles and complete missile defense systems from locations around the world, including South Korea’s Patriot and THAAD systems, to bolster defenses in the Middle East. Prior to the conflict, the US already faced a depleted arsenal, with approximately 600 interceptors for THAAD systems in early 2025, of which over 150 were used during a previous 12-day period of hostilities with Iran in June 2025. Deliveries of Patriot system missiles were reportedly down to 25 percent of the Pentagon’s required volume by July 2025. Reports indicate that the US has been reluctant to fulfill requests from Gulf states for weapons and ammunition to counter Iranian attacks, likely reflecting severe shortages and prioritization of existing interceptors for US and Israeli protection.
IRGC Successes
The IRGC has achieved notable successes, including the destruction of approximately $2.7 billion worth of radar systems in the first week of fighting. This damage significantly reduced missile defense capabilities, particularly impacting THAAD systems and Israel’s anti-missile network. Satellite imagery following strikes on the Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait indicated the destruction of at least six buildings or structures connected to satellite communications infrastructure.