Jake’s Predictions 25/26: Staked 203.50pts | Returned 230.91pts | P/L +27.41pts | ROI 13%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Table of Contents
Boxing Day 20:00 – Man Utd vs Newcastle
2pts Casemiro 2+ total shots at evens (bet365)
1.5pts Anthony Gordon to score or assist at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 12:30 – N Forest vs Man City
1pt Elliot Anderson to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 – Arsenal vs Brighton
1pt Diego Gomez to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00 – Brentford vs Bournemouth
1.5pts Brentford to win at 13/10 (General)
0.5pt Nathan Collins to score anytime at 11/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Sepp van den Berg to score anytime at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Saturday 15:00 – Burnley vs Everton
1.5pts Kyle Walker to commit 2+ fouls at 6/4 (BetVictor, Betway)
0.5pt Kyle Walker to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 – Liverpool vs Wolves
3pts Under 3.5 goals at 8/11 (Betfred)
Saturday 17:30 – Chelsea vs Aston Villa
1pt Morgan Rogers 1+ shots on target outside box at 12/5 (bet365)
Sunday 14:00 – Sunderland vs Leeds
1pt Dominic Calvert-Lewin 3+ total shots at 2/1 (bet365)
Sunday 16:30 – C Palace vs Tottenham
2pts Over 2.5 goals at evens (General)
1pt Richarlison to score anytime at 23/10 (betfair, Paddy Power)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Merry Christmas everyone! ‘Tis the season of giving, so let’s hope the Premier League action can give us plenty of spending money.
Last week ended in a small profit (+0.5pts) thanks to Matheus Cunha’s heroics, and there are a lot of angles I like the look of this weekend.
We have a variety of markets and prices for the 10 games, starting on Boxing Day (Friday) and ending on Sunday, so let’s hope we are on Santa’s nice list!
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Manchester City are understandably short in the market for this one, but Nottingham Forest are proving to be a tough nut to crack at home. Nuno espirito Santo has them well organised and they’ve only lost one of their last seven at the City Ground.
Looking at the card markets,I’m interested in RODRI to be carded at 3/1. He’s been booked in three of his last six league games and averages 0.24 cards per 90.
That would give us a rough price of 3/1 without factoring in the referee appointment or the opponents,who have a number of excellent close control dribblers.
The other thing to factor in for card bets this week is that we are only two games away from the suspension amnesty, where players with fewer than five bookings will avoid a ban unless they reach 10.Those on four (such as Bernardo Silva and Neco Williams) may be doing their best to avoid one in the next two matchdays.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Arsenal vs Brighton
Arsenal did enough last weekend at Everton while Brighton are stalling after a decent start. A home win looks likely.
The Seagulls are without carlos Baleba for a while due to AFCON and last week had to manage without his replacement DIEGO GOMEZ due to suspension after collecting five cards.He’s back now and at 3/1 TO BE CARDED looks a cracking bet with him expected to line up in defensive midfield.
The Paraguayan has featured there nine times this season and has averaged 1.67 fouls per 90 in those games, with all five of his cards coming in those nine matches, making his card per 90 average 0.83 when deployed centrally.
Against the league leaders he could have his name taken yet again, especially given the recent league meetings between these clubs have been fiery. We do have a decent referee overseeing things too in John Brooks (4.2 cards per game).
Score prediction: arsenal 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
Brentford vs Bournemouth
Many may look at the odds and think Bournemouth have been overpriced here but I’d argue that this is one of the tougher match-ups in the league for the Cherries. Andoni iraola deploys a high press aiming to force turnovers in the final third and Brentford basically just kick it over the top of said press, negating it wholly.
The Bees have the same identity under Keith Andrews as they did under Thomas Frank so that headache will remain for Bournemouth, who have lost the last four head-to-heads. The Cherries are also winless in eight league games and low on confidence so I’ll happily have a bet on BRENTFORD TO WIN at 13/10.
Andrews’ side have been excellent at home anyway this season, winning five of eight and averaging 2.03 xGF and 1.26 xGA per game, while Bournemouth have been poor travellers (1W 3D 4L) conceding 23 goals in eight away games and an average of 2.23 xGA per game.
Bournemouth have also overtaken West Ham at the top of the set-piece goals conceded standings and it’s gone under the r
liverpool vs Wolves
Liverpool’s injury crisis means I can see them holding the Reds at bay too. Arne Slot has a threadbare squad for this clash, missing players from all over the pitch (Mohamed salah, Cody Gakpo, Joe Gomez, Dominik Szoboszlai, Wataru Endo, Alexander Isak, Conor Bradley) so an already dysfunctional team will be even more so with a number of players likely to be out of position.
Even when near full strength only one of Liverpool’s eight home league games this season has gone over 3.5 goals and that was the very first game of the season, while across their last 10 games in all competitions they have mustered an average of just 1.56 xGF per game – a far cry from their 2.45 last season.
And also Wolves being tough to create against, Liverpool are in a place where they just want results. Nothing fancy, no running up the score, just conserve energy and get three points, making the unders a great bet. A home win and Under 3.5 is 13/10 for those who want a bigger price.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
West Ham vs Fulham
This is a massive game for west Ham, who are at real risk of being cut adrift in the relegation zone. They are five points from safety heading into the weekend after a poor run of results.
Fulham’s back-to-back wins over sides in the bottom four have seen them pull 10 points clear,and a third in a row would put them on the verge of safety already you’d imagine; you wouldn’t put it past them.
It’s a no bet here, but an away win and both teams scoring could be a runner at 19/5 (William Hill).
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Fulham (Sky bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 22:00 (23/12/25)
chelsea vs Aston Villa
Chelsea, who have won just four of their eight home league games, are odds-on to beat an Aston Villa team who have won 10 league games in a row and 16 of their last 18 in all competitions. That doesn’t make sense to me.
Having said that, I’m swerving the traditional markets and focusing on the red-hot MORGAN ROGERS, who is 12/5 to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.
He really has his shooting boots on and is pulling the trigger from anywhere given how much confidence he has right now.
Rogers has taken 31 shots this season with 13 of those (42%) coming from distance and seven hitting the target at an average of 0.42 per 90.
Those figures all make the price on offer for a repeat good value, as does the fact that this bet has copped in seven of his last 11 league matches.
Score prediction:
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham: Preview and Predictions
Here’s a preview of the Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Hotspur match, with analysis and betting tips, updated with the latest information as of December 26, 2025.
Crystal Palace have experienced a downturn in form recently, with two league defeats, a draw in the UEFA Europa Conference League, and a carabao Cup exit. This follows a promising start to the season,and is compounded by a growing injury list,including players away on Africa Cup of Nations duty. https://www.crystalpalacefc.co.uk/news/2025/12/25/team-news-vs-tottenham/
Tottenham Hotspur are also struggling for consistency, having lost five of their last seven Premier League games. Their defensive vulnerabilities have been highlighted by the suspension of Cristian Romero.https://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/news/2025/12/25/team-update-cristian-romero/
Betting Recommendations:
* Over 2.5 Goals: At even money, backing over 2.5 goals appears a strong possibility. Spurs’ away games this season have frequently featured three or more goals (seven of their eight away matches). Palace, playing at home, also demonstrate attacking intent, averaging 1.98 expected goals (xG) per game at Selhurst Park.
* Richarlison to Score Anytime: Richarlison is currently Tottenham’s leading league scorer with seven goals. His recent performance off the bench against a nine-man side demonstrated his impact, and he’s averaging 0.64 goals per 90 minutes in the league – significantly higher than any other Spurs player. He is available at 23/10. https://www.premierleague.com/players/richarlison
Score Prediction:
Crystal Palace 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1) https://skybet.com/football/english-premier-league/crystal-palace-v-tottenham/e-35057359
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