Robert Kagan Warns of a Looming Dictatorship in the U.S.
U.S. Historian Robert Kagan has issued stark warnings about the state of American democracy, asserting that the nation is facing its most dangerous period in 80 years and is “falling under dictatorship almost without resistance.” His assessments center on the potential return of Donald Trump to power and the implications for the future of the United States and global stability.
Kagan’s Dire Assessment
In an interview with Der Spiegel, Kagan expressed dismay that few Americans seem to grasp the gravity of the situation. He observed a spectrum of responses – some actively supporting the unfolding events, others in denial, and still others believing the consequences won’t be severe. He likened the current moment to witnessing a country succumb to dictatorship, a scenario he previously thought unimaginable within the U.S. Source
Kagan famously predicted in 2016 that Trump’s path would lead to a form of American fascism, characterizing him as a “television huckster, a phony billionaire, a textbook egomaniac.” Source Although he didn’t initially foresee the level of violence that has occurred, such as the ICE militia confrontations with U.S. Citizens in Minneapolis, he acknowledges a failure to anticipate such “military brutality in the streets.” Source
From Republican to Independent
Kagan’s concerns prompted a significant political shift. During the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, he left the Republican Party due to the nomination of Donald Trump and endorsed Hillary Clinton. Source He is identified as a neoconservative scholar and a proponent of liberal internationalism. Source He co-founded the Project for the Recent American Century and currently serves as a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Source
A New World Disorder
Speaking in December 2025, Kagan described the current moment as a “real break” and a “discontinuity” from the post-World War II era of American foreign policy. He suggested that the shifts represent a return to “normal international relations,” implying a more volatile and unpredictable global landscape. Source He believes that while American foreign policy has experienced debates, the current changes are more substantial than the typical 10% shifts seen with new administrations.
About Robert Kagan
Born in Athens, Greece, in 1958, Robert Kagan is the son of historian Donald Kagan and brother to military historian Frederick Kagan. Source He holds degrees from Yale University, Harvard University, and American University. Source He previously wrote a monthly column on world affairs for The Washington Post. Source