Ukrainian Public Support for Peace Negotiations with Russia Remains Steady Amid High Confidence in Victory
Public willingness to engage in diplomatic talks to end the war in Ukraine remains stable, with three-quarters of citizens supporting negotiations with Russia, according to polling data released by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The survey shows that 75 percent of Ukrainians backed peace talks, matching figures recorded in February 2025, while 21 percent opposed negotiations and 4 percent remained undecided.
Survey Methodology and the Distinction Over Concessions
The KIIS poll was conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), reaching 1,002 respondents aged 18 and older across government-controlled territories of Ukraine using random mobile number selection. Institute researchers emphasized that the survey question addressed only the principle of holding negotiations rather than any potential concessions to Russia, a nuance previously highlighted by Ukrainska Pravda. In the February 2025 survey, 74 percent favored talks, 19 percent were against, and 7 percent declined to answer.
Shifting Confidence Levels in the Ultimate Outcome of the War
Alongside the steady support for diplomacy, the polling data reveals a measurable drop in absolute certainty regarding a Ukrainian military victory. Nearly four-fifths of respondents expressed belief that Ukraine will win the war, but the breakdown of that confidence shifted between July and September 2026. In late July 2026, 85 percent of respondents believed in a Ukrainian victory, with 60 percent completely certain. By mid-September 2026, total belief in victory stood at 79 percent—comprising 47 percent who were completely certain and 32 percent who thought it likely. Meanwhile, 7 percent of respondents stated they believe Russia will win, and 14 percent remained undecided.
Frequently Asked Questions About the KIIS Polling Data
How many people participated in the KIIS survey?
The poll gathered responses from 1,002 Ukrainian citizens over the age of 18 residing in areas under the control of the Ukrainian government.
What specific question did researchers ask respondents about negotiations?
Interviewers asked, “Do you agree or disagree with conducting negotiations with Russia to end the war?” without introducing specific terms for territorial compromises.
How did certainty regarding a Ukrainian victory change between July and September 2026?
The proportion of respondents who were completely certain of a Ukrainian victory fell from 60 percent in late July 2026 to 47 percent by mid-September 2026.
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