South Korea’s Fertility Rate Nears 1.0: A Temporary Rebound?
South Korea’s total fertility rate (TFR) edged closer to 1.0 in January 2026, recording a rate of 0.99, marking the highest level in seven years. While the number of births increased by 11.7% compared to the same period last year, experts caution against interpreting this as a definitive recovery, citing the impending complete of the “second eco-boom” generation’s childbearing years.
Recent Statistics and Trends
According to data released by the National Data Agency on March 25, 2026, 26,916 babies were born in January. This represents the highest number of births in a single January since 2019, when 30,300 births were recorded. The TFR of 0.99 is the first time the rate has exceeded 0.9 on a monthly basis since January 2024.
The crude birth rate varies by region, with Sejong recording the highest rate at 8.8, followed by Gyeonggi (7.0), Incheon, and Chungbuk (6.7).
The “Eco-Boom” Generation and Marriage Rates
The recent increase in births is largely attributed to the “eco-boom” generation – those born between 1991 and 1995 – entering their early to mid-30s. This demographic experienced a peak in births between 1991 and 1995, with over 700,000 births annually. The number of marriages, a key indicator of future births, as well rose to 22,640 in January, a 12.4% increase from the previous year and the highest number in eight years.
It takes an average of 2 years and 6 months from marriage to the birth of the first child, suggesting that the increase in births is expected to continue for the next 2 to 3 years.
Concerns About Long-Term Sustainability
Despite the positive trend, experts warn that the rebound may be temporary. Yoo Hye-jeong, head of the Population Research Center at the Korean Peninsula Future Institute, emphasized that the childbearing period for those born in the 1990s will end in the early 2030s, urging caution in interpreting the current increase as a sign of a sustained recovery.
The female population aged 30 to 34, considered prime childbearing years, is projected to decrease from 1.67 million in 2026 to 1.23 million in 2036, and further to 670,000 by 2056. This demographic shift raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of the current birth rate.
Government Initiatives and Policy Gaps
The government has implemented measures to address the low birth rate, including increased tax benefits for newlyweds and encouragement of paternity leave. But, some critics point to a lack of a comprehensive population policy, noting that the position of vice chairman of the President’s Committee on Low Birth Rate and Aging Society has been vacant since December 2025.
Experts at the Korean Peninsula Future Population Research Institute have warned that failure to address the declining population could jeopardize national competitiveness, emphasizing the need for practical measures to prevent population decline and regional extinction. Kim Jong-hoon, Chairman of Korea Research Institute of Korea, highlighted the need to focus on increasing the population rather than simply redistributing it.
Looking Ahead
While the recent increase in South Korea’s fertility rate offers a glimmer of hope, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. Sustained efforts and comprehensive policies will be crucial to address the underlying demographic challenges and ensure a stable future for the nation.
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