Latvia Fuel Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions

Latvia is experiencing a significant increase in fuel prices, with diesel seeing a more substantial jump than gasoline, following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The price hikes are attributed to fluctuations in the stock exchange and geopolitical instability, impacting both consumers, and businesses.

Price Increases Across Fuel Types

Data from the LETA agency indicates that the average price of diesel fuel across Latvia’s major gas station networks has risen by approximately 20% since the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Brand 95 gasoline prices have increased by a more moderate 5-7% during the same period.

Circle K Latvia

Gatis Titovs, fuel category manager at Circle K Latvia, reported an approximate 5% increase in the average price of brand 95 gasoline, rising from €1.554 per liter on February 27th to €1.634 per liter as of March 9, 2026. Diesel fuel at Circle K stations saw a more significant increase of around 18%, moving from €1.544 per liter to €1.814 per liter over the same timeframe. Circle K Latvia noted that diesel prices are more sensitive to market fluctuations due to its higher consumption rate in Latvia – approximately 80% of total fuel consumption.

Neste Latvija

Representatives from Neste Latvija informed LETA that the average price of brand 95 gasoline at their stations increased by approximately 7.1%, from €1.507 per liter on February 27th to €1.617 per liter on March 9, 2026. Diesel fuel prices at Neste stations rose by approximately 20%, from €1.497 per liter to €1.797 per liter.

Viada Baltija

AS “Viada Baltija” reported an average price increase of approximately 6.4% for brand 95 gasoline, rising from €1.538 per liter to €1.636 per liter. Diesel fuel prices at Viada Baltija stations increased by approximately 17.3%, from €1.534 per liter to €1.799 per liter. The company attributes the rapid price increases to high demand and the cost of replenishing stocks at elevated prices.

Virši-A

Kaspars Meinuzs, head of the oil product circulation and analysis group at AS “Virši-A,” stated that the average price of 95 brand gasoline in the “Virši” network increased by eight cents per liter, while diesel fuel increased by 26 cents per liter since the escalation of the Middle East conflict. He emphasized that the exchange price of diesel fuel has risen more significantly than gasoline.

Factors Influencing Price Increases

Fuel retailers emphasize that prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including world market prices, exchange rates, taxes, and local competition. The price of fuel is tied to stock exchange fluctuations, which can change rapidly, and is correlated with, but not directly dependent on, crude oil prices. The recent surge in fuel prices is disproportionately affecting diesel due to higher demand from the transportation and agricultural sectors.

Future Outlook

Predicting future fuel prices remains challenging due to the volatile geopolitical situation. Representatives from Circle K Latvia indicated that the situation is difficult to forecast even in the short term, with pressure on prices remaining. Viada Baltija predicts further price increases if the current geopolitical situation persists. Economists warn that rising fuel prices could impact consumers and businesses for weeks or months, even if the conflict were to resolve quickly, due to potential disruptions in oil supply and logistics. Circle K recently acquired 26 Astarte-nafta petrol stations in Latvia in August 2025.