UNDP Leverages AI and Satellite Imagery to Refine Human Development Index

For over three decades, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Report Office (HDRO) has been a leading force in shifting the global conversation about progress beyond purely economic measures. The organization’s Human Development Index (HDI) has long served as a crucial tool for assessing countries’ wellbeing. Now, a new collaborative study is extending the HDI’s reach, utilizing artificial intelligence and satellite imagery to generate more granular, localized estimates of human development.

Bridging Data Gaps with Technology

Traditionally, HDI calculations have been limited by the availability of consistent, subnational data. This new research, published on February 17, 2026, in Nature Communications, addresses this challenge by employing machine learning algorithms to analyze satellite imagery. This allows for the creation of HDI estimates for 61,530 municipalities and counties worldwide, and even more detailed assessments using 10-by-10-kilometer grid tiles. The study demonstrates how conclusions about human development can shift depending on the level of geographic detail considered.

A Collaborative Effort

The research is the result of a collaboration between Heriberto Tapia, Research and Strategic Partnership Advisor at the HDRO, and academic partners from the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), and the University of British Columbia (UBC). This partnership underscores the HDRO’s commitment to innovation in human development metrics and strengthening the evidence base for policy decisions.

How Satellite Imagery Informs the HDI

The model generating these estimates relies on data derived from satellite imagery, rather than requiring direct measurement in every location. This approach complements, rather than replaces, official national HDI reporting. The precision of the estimates can vary depending on the specific context. The research also publishes the satellite features used, enabling increased spatial resolution of other administrative data detectable via imagery.

Beyond GDP: A Holistic View of Development

The HDI incorporates key dimensions of wellbeing – health, education, and standard of living – offering a more comprehensive picture than gross domestic product (GDP) alone. By providing localized estimates, this new methodology can reveal within-country disparities that national averages often mask. Researchers found that more than half of the global population was previously assigned to the incorrect HDI quintile within their respective countries due to aggregation bias.

The Nature Relationship Index (NRI)

Relatedly, the UNDP-HDRO is also involved in the development of the Nature Relationship Index (NRI), a new metric designed to measure the quality of a nation’s relationship with nature. Led by Erle Ellis of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), this initiative aims to assess nations’ contributions to the living world, focusing on landscape management, sustainable resource use, and environmental protection. The NRI is slated for public release as part of the 2026 Human Development Report and will be updated annually.

These advancements reflect a growing trend towards utilizing innovative data sources and analytical techniques to gain a more nuanced understanding of human development and environmental sustainability on a global scale.