Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro held final campaign events in São Paulo on Saturday, concluding a high-stakes race ahead of Sunday’s presidential election where nearly 160 million citizens are eligible to cast ballots.
Datafolha and PoderData Polls Shape Final Weekend
Polling data released in the final stretch of the campaign showed the two frontrunners locked in a tight contest. clarin.com reported that a PoderData survey released Saturday placed the incumbent president ahead with 45% of the vote, up two points, while Bolsonaro registered 43%, up one point. Both candidates appeared tied at 46% in a projected second-round runoff.
Meanwhile, onetv.com.ar noted that attention centered heavily on an expected Datafolha poll scheduled for Saturday afternoon, serving as the final major indicator before voters head to the polls for a likely October 25 runoff. A prior Datafolha survey from Thursday showed Lula leading his opponent 45% to 40%, and holding a 48% to 45% edge in a simulated second round.
Southeast Regional Focus and Economic Pressures
Both campaigns concentrated their closing efforts in the heavily populated southeast region, which anchors the national economy. Lula campaigned through Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro before concluding with a caravan along Avenida Paulista, while Bolsonaro focused his final push within the interior of São Paulo state.
Authorities and analysts expressed concern over potential voter turnout, noting that abstention could surpass the record 20.79%—representing roughly 32.2 million absent voters—seen during the 2022 presidential election that brought Lula to power over Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro. Government sources and economists from the Getulio Vargas Foundation, including Marcelo Neri, attributed financial strains among lower-income voters to soaring basic basket costs and fuel inflation, compounded by online gambling losses.
International Reactions and Campaign Allegations
The final days of the race also saw diplomatic friction. The Planalto executive headquarters raised objections regarding U.S. financial support directed toward the opposition, while Lula called for an investigation into decisions by the United States and Australia to temporarily close embassies and consular offices across Brazil citing security concerns.
“Existe insatisfacción con la economía y la percepción de que no mejorará,” stated political scientist António Lavareda, highlighting ongoing consumer pessimism regarding household expenses.