Malaria remains a complex global health problem due to partial immunity, asymptomatic carriage, and insecticide resistance. To describe the dynamics of transmission, a nonlinear mathematical model is used that adds vaccination compartments along with other interventions. Through the Next Generation Matrix method, the effective reproduction number and disease-free and endemic stability conditions are reduced.
Sensitivity parameters showed that vaccination rate, vaccine efficacy, loss of immunity, and human–mosquito contact were the most influential factors. Simulations show that increasing vaccine coverage reduces prevalence significantly, while cost-effectiveness analysis shows that the combination of vaccination with insecticide-treated bed nets, diagnostic surveillance, and environmental sanitation is the most effective and cost-effective strategy.
Malaria is described through a mathematical model that ensures all solutions remain positive and within the realm of biological reasonableness. With the Next Generation Matrix approach, the effective reproduction number (Re) is the main indicator: a value of Re < 1 produces a stable malaria-free state, while Re > 1 produces a stable endemic state. Parameters such as vaccine coverage, efficacy, rate of loss of immunity, and level of human–vector contact have been shown to influence disease spread the most.
The model was then expanded with time-dependent interventions that include vaccination, vector control, as well as treatment and environmental remediation measures. Optimal analysis showed that the combination of the three interventions provided the greatest reduction in transmission. The cost-effectiveness evaluation confirmed that this integrated strategy not only provided the strongest epidemiological impact, but was also the most economically efficient.
Author: Ayodeji Sunday Afolabi, Miswanto Miswanto
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date:2026-02-11 08:32:00