For the third time in the past five months, the creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, an economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved slightly below growth neutral.
Highlights include:
* The regional manufacturing sector shed jobs for the eighth straight month.
* 40% of supply managers indicated their wage growth over the past year had been less than the increase in the cost-of-living.
* November wholesale price gauge declined to its lowest reading this year.
* Both imports and exports remained weak.
* For September and October of 2025, the average weekly number of workers in the nine-state region receiving unemployment compensation was 3.7% higher compared to the same period in 2024.
Iowa: The stateS Business Conditions Index for November climbed to a regional high of 52.1 from October’s 46.7. Components of the overall November index were: new orders at 48.8; production at 50.9; delivery lead time at 57.7; employment at 50.2; and inventories at 52.7. For September and October of 2025, the average weekly number of workers in the state receiving unemployment compensation was 22.3% lower when compared to the same period in 2024.
Overall index: the Business Conditions Index, which uses the same methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, sank to 49.5 from 50.5 in October.
“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that the regional manufacturing economy continues to move sideways with the wholesale inflation gauge moving lower,” Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister chair in regional economics, said in a news release.
“Supply managers reported weakness in both imports and exports.”
As reported by one supply manager, “Our business outlook has changed from positive to cautious.”
Employment: The November overall employment index increased to a frail 47.6 from 46.9 in October, marking the eighth consecutive month below the growth-neutral threshold of 50.0.
“This month, supply managers were asked the extent to which they use AI in their job. Approximately, one-fourth reported that they used AI regularly in their job duties,” said Goss.
About 40% of supply managers indicated their wage growth over the past year had been less than the increase in the cost of living. Roughly,half reported that wage growth matched cost-of-living gains,with the remaining 10% indicating that wages and cost-of-living growth rates were equal.
While current data are not available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment data based on workers receiving unemployment insurance at the state level were available.
For September and October of 2025, the number of workers in the nine-state region receiving unemployment compensation was 3.7% higher when compared to the same period in 2024.
Othre comments from supply managers in November:
* “We are a global company, and I am concerned that wages and cost of
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