Myanmar Civil War: Russia & China Gain Influence Amid Western Failure

People’s protests have become resistance

Five years ago, on February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military staged a coup d’état. The soldiers detained elected leaders, including representatives of the civilian government, blocked telephone communications and the Internet, and declared a state of emergency.

Military leaders claimed fraud in the 2020 elections, but international observers found them credible.

Within days, millions of people took to the streets. Civil servants went on strike, students, doctors, teachers – whole sections of society joined what became known as the Civil Disobedience Movement.

During the demonstrations, shootings began, but the protests turned into resistance by the population. The resistance turned into an armed conflict.

Currently, Myanmar is in the midst of one of the most complex civil wars in the world.

The latest reports indicate that more than 92,000 people have died since the 2021 coup. About 3.5 million people are internally displaced, while the total number of forcibly displaced people exceeds four million.

At the same time, some 16 million people, nearly a third of the country’s total population, are in need of humanitarian assistance for food, shelter and medical care.

Some estimates suggest that the army actually controls only about 20% of the country’s territory, while resistance forces and ethnic armed groups control large swaths of the countryside and border areas.

In the shadow of civil war, the military government organizes elections

Despite the division of the country, the military government tries to implement the country’s domestic policy. In late 2025 and early 2026, the military government organized national elections.

Although the elections took place, many opposition parties have been barred from participating in them, thousands of political prisoners remain in prisons and voter turnout has fallen to around 55%, significantly lower than in previous democratic elections.

Military-backed parties gained overwhelming control of parliament.

Five years after the coup, Myanmar has elections but no stability. There is a government but no legitimacy. On the other hand, in the international environment, there is an understanding of what is happening, but there is a lack of action.

Western countries react but are unable to stop the violence

Western countries have reacted after the military coup by imposing sanctions, increasing diplomatic pressure and providing necessary humanitarian aid. But even in the face of sanctions, Myanmar’s military continued to receive critical war supplies.

In 2025, more than 109,000 tons of aviation fuel were imported into Myanmar. Last year has become the deadliest year of airstrikes since the coup.

Low-tech airstrikes also continue. Since the end of 2024, more than 300 paramotor and light aircraft attacks on civilians have been registered.

Although Western countries have imposed sanctions, there are deeper structural limits to their ability to influence what happens in Myanmar. Myanmar is not deeply integrated into Western economic supply chains and is not a major manufacturing hub for Western companies or a major energy exporter to the West.

Despite the magnitude and tragic consequences of the crisis caused by the civil war, in global politics issues are often determined by the economic interdependence and strategic importance of countries. So, many western countries have responded, but their decisions and actions are not enough to stop the civil war in Myanmar.

China deepens Myanmar’s political and economic dependence

While many countries have acted to try to stop the civil war, some have done a great deal to perpetuate it.

China’s relationship with Myanmar is deep and structural. China is Myanmar’s largest trading partner and one of its most important investors. In 2025, Myanmar exported about US$620 million worth of rare earth metals, materials critical to electronics, renewable energy and modern industry, to China.

China is also involved in infrastructure projects such as the construction of transport corridors, pipelines and energy projects.

Meanwhile, Myanmar provides access to the Indian Ocean and helps diversify China’s trade routes.

The two countries have deep economic ties, but China also plays an influential political mediating role. Beijing has organized talks between Myanmar’s army and some ethnic armed groups.

China also exerts pressure on Myanmar, only when cross-border crime threatens its interests. China does not want war, yet benefits from it, as instability increases Myanmar’s economic and political dependence on Beijing.

Russia has greater influence in the energy sector

Russia, on the other hand, plays a smaller role economically in Myanmar than China, but Moscow focuses on strategically important sectors. For example, it has signed agreements on oil and gas exploration, power generation projects and industrial cooperation.

Russia is one of the main suppliers of military equipment to Myanmar. The planes and helicopters it supplies help Myanmar’s military maintain operational capabilities.

For Russia, this relationship is both a geopolitical and an economic issue.

Neither Russia nor China has started a civil war in Myanmar, yet they are willing to cooperate with the government that exists now, not with any government that may exist in the future.

Myanmar’s civil war is just one of the most complex cases in contemporary international politics. It is a conflict that the international community condemns, but is unable or unwilling to actively influence. The case of Myanmar shows how difficult it is to reach an international agreement on more proactive action when the conflict does not directly threaten the strategic interests of major powers. Consequently, without significant changes in the international approach, there is a risk that the conflict may continue as a long-term source of instability throughout the region.

Some of the most expensive rubies in the world have been found in Myanmar

Historically, the world’s highest quality rubies have come from the region around Mogok in central Myanmar, often called the Ruby Valley.

This region is geologically unique. Rubies were formed there under special conditions of temperature and pressure millions of years ago. It was these conditions that created what gemologists call “pigeon blood red,” a very rich, deep red with a slight inner glow.

This effect is caused by the presence of chromium in the stone, as well as the natural fluorescence that makes the ruby appear almost “alive” in certain lighting. This feature is very rare. Most of the world’s rubies are lighter, with a purple or brownish hue. On the other hand, the highest quality Mogoka rubies retain their pure, intense red color.

The sizes of the rubies available in Myanmar are also rare. Most quality rubies in the world are very small. Large, high quality rubies are extremely rare. That’s why top-quality Mogoka rubies can fetch hundreds of thousands of US dollars per carat on the auction market.

Some historical stones have exceeded one million dollars per carat, making them some of the most expensive colored gemstones in the world.

For centuries, Myanmar provided much of the world’s highest quality rubies. Historical sources mention that Burmese kings considered rubies a symbol of power and protection. In some cases, warriors placed rubies under their skin in the belief that they would make them invulnerable.

Today, the ruby industry is also economically important. Historically, the Mogoka region’s gemstone sector could be worth hundreds of millions of US dollars a year, although exact figures are often difficult to determine due to informal mining and smuggling.

Today, one of the biggest buyers of the Myanmar gemstone market is the Asian region, especially China. So the routes of the luxury goods market are also often influenced by geopolitics.