A broad area of low pressure churning over the Atlantic Ocean holds a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters are tracking the system as it moves west-northwestward, while simultaneously monitoring potential activity in the northern Gulf that could impact Florida in the coming days.
Atlantic System Faces Wind Shear Hurdles
The National Hurricane Center updated its forecast on Tuesday, raising the development odds for the Atlantic disturbance from 20% on Sunday to 40% within a seven-day window. Despite the upward adjustment, forecasters categorize the system’s chances as medium-low due to strong upper-level winds hindering immediate organization.
In the beginning, fast forward movement and wind shear will stop the storm from reaching the surface and turning into a tropical system, as stated by AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable in the coming days as the system progresses across the open ocean.
The Atlantic basin remains notably quiet during what has just passed its statistical peak of the hurricane season, which runs through November 30. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University, pointed out that an intensifying El Niño pattern has fueled the most severe wind shear on record for that time of year between the Caribbean Sea and the area just off Africa’s west coast since 1979.
Gulf of Mexico Monitoring and Potential Trajectories
Alongside the central Atlantic disturbance, forecasters are watching a separate dip in the jet stream along the Atlantic coast [in the northern Gulf]. AccuWeather forecasters report that this pattern could allow a storm in the upper atmosphere to break away and drift southwestward across Florida later in the week.
If the system slows down over the northern Gulf from late this week into the weekend, a tropical depression or storm could develop near the Gulf Coast. The Weather Company notes that late-season systems in the Atlantic should eventually be scooped up by a cold front and pushed northeastward away from land.
Historical Context of the 2026 Hurricane Season
The ongoing El Niño has severely suppressed tropical activity by generating persistent wind shear that tears thunderstorms apart before they can organize. This dynamic previously caused the rapid demise of Tropical Storm Dolly in late August.
The 2026 season reached a historical point on Saturday by establishing a new record for the longest stretch at the start of a year without any storm intensifying into a hurricane. If no Atlantic hurricane forms through Sept. 21, the season will set a record for the latest arrival of the season’s first hurricane, according to AccuWeather data.
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