<>
Reform UK’s opinion poll lead has collapsed to just two points over Labour following scrutiny over party leader Nigel Farage’s personal finances, according to research published by Ipsos UK. The survey, which asked over 1,000 adults between June 25 and 30 how they would vote in a general election, places support for Reform at 26%, down one point from May. Meanwhile, Labour’s backing jumped four points to 24%, putting the two parties within striking distance.
Ipsos Poll Details Shifting Political Landscape
According to Ipsos UK, Reform’s lead has shrunk by five points compared to a month prior. The new polling data places the Conservative Party in third place with 18% support, followed by the Green Party at 13% and the Liberal Democrats at 11%, based on the survey of more than 1,000 adults conducted between June 25 and 30.
Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos, noted that Labour is narrowing the gap as public doubts persist over whether Reform UK or the Conservatives are ready for government. According to the Ipsos survey, 30% of voters prefer Andy Burnham as prime minister, compared to 16% for Nigel Farage and 13% for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.
Financial Revelations and Parliamentary Scrutiny
Reform bosses face questions as the party’s progress stalls following revelations about Nigel Farage’s personal finances. In April, The Guardian revealed that Farage received a £5 million gift from Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before winning election as an MP. Farage failed to declare the donation upon election, prompting an ongoing investigation by the parliamentary standards commissioner into whether the omission breached the MPs’ code of conduct.
Additional scrutiny emerged when The Sunday Times reported that Farage also received financial support from convicted criminal George Cottrell before entering parliament. According to reporting from HuffPost UK, Farage dismissed the revelations as an “establishment hit job.” Liberal Democrat MP Josh Babarinde subsequently reported Farage to parliamentary authorities, setting the stage for a potential second Commons sleaze probe.
Local Election Gains and Sir John Curtice’s Projections
Despite national polling shifts, Reform UK has recently secured notable victories at the ballot box. According to BBC reporting, the party gained control of several councils from Labour, including Barnsley, Wakefield, Sunderland, and Gateshead, while shifting Hartlepool, Tameside, Redditch, and Tamworth to no overall control. In Wigan, Reform won 24 out of 25 contested seats as Labour suffered heavy losses.
Speaking after securing control of Havering, Nigel Farage called the results “a truly historic shift in British politics,” adding that his party is proving it can win in areas traditionally dominated by Labour since the end of World War I. Polling expert Sir John Curtice noted that Reform has performed best in areas that voted heavily for Brexit in 2016. Curtice’s projected national vote share, based on results from more than 1,000 wards collected by the BBC, placed Reform on 26%, ahead of the Greens on 18%, Labour and the Tories both on 17%, and the Liberal Democrats on 16%.
Keep reading