The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development projected on September 23, 2026, that Indonesia's gross domestic product will grow by 5.2% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027, driven by strong domestic demand and improving terms of trade that support expanded investment. The Paris-based organization released these figures in its interim economic outlook report, outlining growth trajectories across major emerging economies.
OECD Growth Projections and Investment Drivers
Strong domestic consumption underpins the economic momentum in Indonesia, according to the OECD report. Improved terms of trade are providing an additional cushion that encourages business investment across the archipelago. This sustained domestic strength places Indonesia alongside other major emerging G20 members experiencing similar resilience.
Inflation in Indonesia is projected to tick up to 3.3% in 2026 before easing back down to 3.0% by 2027. Across emerging G20 economies, government price support mechanisms are actively cushioning households and businesses from spikes in energy costs, according to the OECD analysis.
Global Economic Risks and Headwinds
Despite solid domestic indicators, the OECD warned that global uncertainties pose significant downside risks to Indonesia and the broader world economy. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East threaten to disrupt energy supplies, push up raw material prices, and keep interest rates elevated, which could erode household purchasing power and constrain future output.
On a global scale, the OECD forecasts worldwide GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. While expanding artificial intelligence investments and production provide a stabilizing counterweight to global growth, prolonged energy supply bottlenecks or weather-related shocks to agricultural production could reignite inflationary pressures and darken the economic outlook.
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