Global Crude Prices March Higher as Gulf Exports Recover and Middle East Diplomacy Stalls
Global crude prices held firm on Thursday as traders weighed signs of recovering Middle East crude flows against ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and tight domestic fuel inventories, investing.com reported. Brent crude futures for December rose 2.0% to $100.03 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.2% to $92.37 a barrel. The front-month Brent contract, which expired on Wednesday, settled at $103.50 in the previous session, according to investing.com data.
Prices remained volatile across global trading desks. Channel NewsAsia reported that Brent crude futures traded up 0.6% to $98.67 a barrel by 0704 GMT on Thursday, while US West Texas Intermediate rose 0.5% to $90.09 a barrel. Despite intraday drops exceeding 1% in both benchmarks, prices recovered lost ground. Brent recorded a monthly gain of around 14% in September, marking its largest monthly increase since July, while WTI rose about 5% for the month.
Gulf Export Recovery Meets Persistent Supply Vulnerabilities
Recent figures point to a tangible recovery in Gulf oil flows, though shipments remain well below pre-conflict levels. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from the key Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations at its east-west pipeline, which stretches the width of the country.
However, regional flows remain constrained. Kpler data showed that Middle East exports in September were still about 3.2 million barrels per day below February levels, leaving the market sensitive to any renewed disruption. AsiaOne reported that Kpler figures indicated crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers climbed to 12.8 million barrels a day in September, aided by increased shipments from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf oil exports—including dark exports involving ships operating with transponders turned off—recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the final week of September, matching their 2025 average as exports doubled during the month.
US-Iran Diplomatic Stymie and Strait of Hormuz Standoff
Diplomatic efforts to end the seven-month conflict remain deadlocked. Iran confirmed on Wednesday that it had received a U.S. response to its latest proposal for restoring a ceasefire in the Gulf, investing.com reported.
Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet, noted that renewed U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement could eventually reduce the geopolitical risk premium, though a breakthrough remains uncertain, Channel NewsAsia reported. UOB analysts added in a client note reported by AsiaOne that the dominant risk continues to be the U.S.-Iran standoff and its implications for energy prices and inflation expectations. Iranian officials have reportedly expressed pessimism about reaching a deal before the situation in the Strait of Hormuz escalates further.
US Inventories, Domestic Diesel Strains, and OPEC+ Policy
U.S. crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels last week to reach 427.3 million barrels, outpacing the draw expected by analysts, according to the Energy Information Administration data cited by investing.com and Channel NewsAsia. Fuel inventories pointed to tighter downstream markets. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels, and distillate stocks—including diesel—dropped by 2.3 million barrels.
President Trump stated on Wednesday that he was still discussing a possible ban on U.S. diesel exports, contradicting a prior White House denial of a report that a 90-day blanket ban was being prepared, investing.com reported. The issue gained urgency as U.S. diesel prices reached a record $6.53 a gallon last week, while domestic diesel inventories hovered at historically low levels. As an alternative to an export ban, officials weighed regulatory relief to allow broader sales of red-dyed diesel to help lower prices, allowing some buyers to avoid federal fuel tax, according to AsiaOne.
Looking ahead to weekend policy decisions, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that the OPEC+ alliance is likely to keep its oil production targets steady for November during its Sunday meeting.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Current Oil Market
How much did Brent crude gain in September?
Brent crude recorded a monthly gain of around 14% in September, marking its largest monthly increase since July, according to investing.com.
What caused Saudi Arabia to resume oil tanker loadings?
Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after successfully restarting operations at its east-west pipeline, which spans the width of the country, investing.com reported.
How did U.S. crude and fuel inventories shift last week?
According to the Energy Information Administration data reported by investing.com, U.S. crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels and distillate stocks dropped 2.3 million barrels.
What is the status of OPEC+ production targets for November?
Two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday.
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