Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar Trajectory: From Golden Globe Winner to Uncertain Frontrunner

Timothée Chalamet, who had long been considered the frontrunner for Best Actor, secured wins at both the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes in early January for his performance in Marty Supreme. However, his path to an Academy Award is now less certain following the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) results.

A Shift in Momentum at the BAFTAs

Chalamet’s press tour for Marty Supreme initially targeted a younger demographic, embracing a more unconventional approach. This shifted during the awards campaign, adopting a more serious and respectful tone. Despite nine nominations at the BAFTAs, Chalamet lost the Best Actor award to Robert Aramayo for I Swear, a film not eligible for the Oscars this season. Although this loss didn’t directly impact his competition for the Academy Award, it signaled a potential shift in voter sentiment.

Historical Context: Solo Wins and BAFTA’s Influence

Historically, a sole Best Actor win at BAFTA, when the film receives multiple nominations, is relatively uncommon. Since 1995, this has occurred only a handful of times, often with sweeping victories for the film overall. Examples include Nicolas Cage for Leaving Las Vegas (1995), Geoffrey Rush for Shine (1996), Denzel Washington for Training Day (2001), Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote (2005), Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland (2006), Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything (2014), and Will Smith for King Richard (2021).¹

Chalamet’s situation differs significantly, having only won the Golden Globe for Best Actor – Musical or Comedy and the Critics Choice Award. The last actors to win an Oscar after only winning a Comedy/Musical Golden Globe were Jean Dujardin (The Artist) and Jack Nicholson (As Good As It Gets) in the last 30 years.²

The SAG Awards and Michael B. Jordan’s Position

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards hold significant weight in the Oscar race. Since 1994, 24 actors have converted a SAG win into an Oscar, but none have done so with only a SAG win. Michael B. Jordan, nominated for his role in Sinners, presents a strong challenge to Chalamet. Jordan benefits from being in a top two Best Picture contender and having already secured a SAG Award.³

Leonardo DiCaprio and Wagner Moura as Potential Dark Horses

Leonardo DiCaprio, nominated for One Battle After Another, has received widespread nominations but has yet to win any major precursors. Wagner Moura, recognized with a Golden Globe for his performance in The Secret Agent, lacks nominations from BAFTA and SAG, making a surprise win less likely. Ethan Hawke, nominated for Blue Moon, too hasn’t secured any major wins.

Final Predictions

Here are the final winner predictions for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards, taking place on March 15:

1. Michael B. Jordan in Sinners
2. Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
3. Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
4. Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent
5. Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon