PC Price Surge and Market Decline Expected in 2026

Consumers should brace for higher PC prices and a shrinking market in 2026, driven by a global shortage of memory chips and compounded by geopolitical instability. Industry analysts predict a significant shift away from bargain-priced computers, with average selling prices (ASPs) expected to rise substantially.

Memory Shortages Fuel Price Increases

Research firm IDC predicts that average PC prices could increase by up to 8% in 2026 due to a critical shortage of memory chips – both RAM and NAND [PCWorld]. This shortage is largely attributed to the surging demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) used in AI data centers, which takes priority over the production of consumer-grade memory due to its higher profitability for manufacturers.

PC Market Contraction

The memory shortage isn’t just impacting prices; it’s also expected to significantly contract the PC market. IDC initially forecasted a 2.4% decline in PC sales for 2026, but has since revised that estimate to an 11.3% decrease [IDC]. Further downward revisions are possible, with some forecasts now predicting a decline of 11.6% [Engadget].

Geopolitical Factors Exacerbate the Situation

Adding to the pressure, geopolitical events are contributing to increased transportation costs and supply chain disruptions. These factors are further straining PC costs and are expected to persist for years to come.

Impact on PC Vendors and Consumers

Major PC vendors like Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS have already signaled price increases and contract resets in response to these cost pressures [PCWorld]. While larger OEMs may be able to gain market share from smaller assemblers by offering pre-built systems as a higher-value option, consumers will likely see fewer budget-friendly PC deals.

Long-Term Outlook

The current situation marks a shift away from the era of bargain-priced PCs. While some easing of prices is anticipated beginning in 2028, the market is unlikely to return to the pricing levels seen in 2025. Instead, a “new normal” defined by structurally higher ASPs and softened long-term demand is expected [Engadget]. Memory shortages are expected to continue well into 2027 [Engadget].

Expert Advice

Cameron Crandall of Kingston recommends that anyone considering a system upgrade should do so as soon as possible, rather than waiting for prices to fall [PCWorld].