Two years after taking office, President Prabowo Subianto and Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka face growing scrutiny over a widening gap between sweeping political ambitions and mounting economic pressures. While gross domestic product expanded by 5.11 percent in 2025 and 5.45 percent in the first half of 2026, the administration’s policy focus on centralized state programs has coincided with a severe squeeze on local budgets, declining public purchasing power, and record cases of gender-based violence, Tempo.co reported.
Centralized Budgets Squeeze Regional Authorities
The first two years of the Prabowo-Gibran administration have concentrated political authority and state funding inside the central government at the expense of regional services, according to an assessment by Laboratorim Indonesian 2045 (LAB45). Regional fund transfers dropped from 25 percent in 2025 to 18 percent in 2026, marking the largest annual decline in two decades. Jaleswari Pramodhawardani stated on October 22, 2026, that debt interest was earmarked at nearly Rp600 trillion—accounting for more than four-fifths of all funds transferred to regions—while 153 regional governments received no physical special allocation funds.
This fiscal tightening has placed heavy pressure on local protection agencies and daily public services. LAB45 highlighted that state spending increasingly favors flagship centralized programs. Jaleswari noted they treat citizens as beneficiaries rather than active subjects.
Defense Spending Surges Alongside Unfulfilled Structural Goals
Military expansion has claimed a substantial share of state resources during the administration’s first two years. President Prabowo inaugurated 366 new units of the Indonesian Armed Forces starting in August 2025. Defense spending reached Rp348.58 trillion in 2025 alone, more than twice the budget ceiling. Despite these outlays, planned procurements such as early warning aircraft and replacements for 36 F-15 fighter jets have yet to secure contracts.
At the same time, grand structural initiatives under the Asta Cita roadmap—including the establishment of an autonomous National Revenue Agency and the target of building three million houses annually—have stalled amid narrow fiscal space, Kompas reported. Giant structural ideas face the harsh reality of budget constraints, forcing officials to scale back grand plans to stave off swelling deficits.
Stagnant Public Sentiment Amid Supersize Coalitions
Initial public enthusiasm has cooled considerably since the administration took office. Surveys by LSI, Kompas, and Indikator in early 2025 recorded public support and expectations reaching around 80 percent. However, a national survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting in early October showed public satisfaction falling to 44.5 percent, with dissatisfaction reaching 53 percent.
This drop in public approval runs parallel to severe economic undercurrents. Bank Indonesia’s consumer confidence survey has registered a declining trend since early this year as households grapple with stagnant purchasing power and limited upward mobility. Compounding these domestic pressures, the Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite index plummeted over 40 percent in 2026 amid foreign capital flight, and the rupiah breached the psychological 18,000 threshold against the US dollar.
Political arrangements have also expanded beyond conventional bounds. The governing coalition has grown into a “supersize” alliance, necessitating a cabinet that has already undergone eight reshuffles. While this grand political coalition guarantees legislative stability, it has weakened parliamentary oversight and raised administrative coordination costs.
Disparities in Funding for Public Communications and Women Protection
Budget allocations for the coming year reveal stark contrasts in government priorities. Data from the National Commission on Violence Against Women recorded 376,529 cases of gender-based violence against women throughout 2025, representing a ten-year high. Yet, the indicative budget ceiling for the Ministry of Women’s Empowerment and Child Protection for 2027 is set at approximately Rp187 billion—more than a third lower than actual spending in 2025.
By contrast, the budget for the Government Communications Agency was approved at Rp1.9 trillion for 2027, marking a 77-fold increase and amounting to roughly ten times the cap allocated for women’s protection.
Tempo has contacted the Head of the Indonesian Government Communications Agency Syahganda Nainggolan and Deputy III for Partnerships and Media Relations of the Indonesian Government Communications Agency Kurnia Ramadhana for responses regarding these findings, but neither issued an immediate comment.