Prediction market traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing in a roughly 50-50 chance that the U.S. September jobs report will show job gains in the six-figure range, according to data released ahead of the official Bureau of Labor Statistics data drop scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m.
Prediction Markets Signal Rebound From Summer Slowdown
Speculators on Kalshi estimate a 60% probability that the U.S. added more than 90,000 jobs during September. Roughly half of those traders see near 50-50 odds for a six-figure print. That outlook outpaces the Dow Jones consensus economist forecast of 84,000 net new positions.
Polymarket participants mirror that sentiment, pricing similar 50-50 odds for a payroll report crossing the 100,000 threshold. Both prediction exchanges resolve their contracts directly using official figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The upbeat market bets follow an August employment report that surprised economists by adding 162,000 jobs. That August rebound reversed earlier summer labor market weakness and provided monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve additional room to concentrate on an inflation rate lingering above target.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases Schedule
Financial markets are tracking a busy data calendar leading up to the end of the week. Ahead of the primary Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Friday morning, ADP is scheduled to publish its national employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Traders watch these indicators closely to gauge whether economic momentum can sustain tighter monetary policy following the central bank’s rate decisions at its September meeting.