New tuberculosis vaccines targeting adolescents and adults could save 7.3 million lives and generate $135 billion in economic benefits, according to modeling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. While the century-old BCG vaccine protects infants from severe TB, it offers limited protection for older populations, leaving a critical gap in global infectious disease prevention, VaccinesWork reported.
TIMBER study maps vaccine rollout in Africa
South Africa, Kenya, and The Gambia have launched the Tuberculosis Integrated Model-Based Evidence and Recommendations (TIMBER) study to create the evidence base needed for national immunization strategies. Launched in August 2025, the 36-month project is led by the Vaccines for Africa Initiative (VACFA) at the University of Cape Town and funded by the Wellcome Trust.
The study aims to provide National Immunisation Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) with the data required to secure funding from national treasuries and prioritize high-risk groups. In South Africa, these priority populations likely include health workers, people living with HIV, and mining communities, though researchers are still gathering evidence to confirm these priorities.
M72/AS01E candidate targets 2029 deployment
One leading candidate, the M72/AS01E vaccine, has shown promise in preliminary efficacy trials. If larger clinical studies maintain these results, the vaccine could be integrated into public immunization programs by 2029 or 2030.
Dr. Benjamin Kagina, Associate Professor at the University of Cape Town and Principal Investigator of the TIMBER team, stated that an effective new vaccine represents the most sustainable long-term strategy to reduce TB mortality. This is particularly urgent in South Africa, where approximately 56,000 people die from TB annually, with more than half of those deaths occurring in people living with HIV.
Infrastructure gaps in adult immunization
Deploying a new TB vaccine requires building delivery platforms that currently do not exist in many African nations, as most systems focus exclusively on infants. Dr. Kagina noted that introducing a TB jab provides an opportunity to strengthen adolescent and adult immunization infrastructure, which could benefit future life-course vaccination programs.
TIMBER study uses trusted messengers to build confidence
While the BCG vaccine is widely trusted, the COVID-19 pandemic revealed that unfamiliar vaccines can trigger mixed responses. The TIMBER study is incorporating transparency regarding modeling assumptions and uncertainties to build public confidence.
Researchers plan to use trusted messengers—including civil society organizations, community leaders, and healthcare workers—to communicate evidence in local languages. This approach follows lessons from the pandemic on how clear communication of data can shape public policy and acceptance.
TB Vaccine Implementation Facts
| Metric/Factor | Detail |
|---|---|
| Estimated Lives Saved | 7.3 million |
| Potential Economic Gain | $135 billion |
| Current Annual Deaths (SA) | ~56,000 |
| Projected Entry Date | 2029–2030 (M72/AS01E) |
Common questions on adult TB vaccination
Why isn’t the BCG vaccine enough for adults?
The BCG vaccine is effective at preventing severe TB in infants and young children, but its ability to prevent pulmonary TB in adolescents and adults is limited. This makes new-generation vaccines necessary to stop the spread of the disease in the general adult population.
Who will get the new vaccines first?
While final prioritizations are still being researched, evidence suggests those at the highest risk will receive priority access. This likely includes HIV-positive individuals, healthcare providers, and workers in high-risk environments like mines.
How does the TIMBER study affect the timeline?
TIMBER does not develop the vaccine itself but creates the policy and logistical roadmap for its use. By synthesizing evidence on safety, cost, and implementation now, the study ensures that governments can act immediately once regulatory approval is granted.
The TIMBER study will continue gathering evidence through August 2028 to refine the recommendations provided to African health ministries.
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