Industrial Production Falls Across Argentina in September Amid Sector Divergence
Argentina’s industrial production dropped by 2.9% year-on-year in September, according to data from the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL), marking a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Private surveys reveal an ongoing struggle to find a stable economic floor throughout the year, following a sharp decline in July and a partial, short-lived recovery in August.
Contrasting Private Estimates on September Output
While both major private surveys confirm that the industrial sector failed to maintain August’s momentum, they differ on the exact scale of the downturn. FIEL recorded a 2.9% year-on-year drop for September, bringing the cumulative decline for the first nine months of the year to 1.4%. On the other hand, Orlando J. Ferreres and Associates (OJF) measured a milder year-on-year decrease of 1.5% for September, with a cumulative nine-month drop of 2.3%.
Month-over-month comparisons also show slight discrepancies between the two analysts. FIEL documented a 0.9% seasonally adjusted drop from August, marking five consecutive months of contraction. Meanwhile, Ferreres reported a stagnant monthly performance with a marginal 0.1% increase, describing the broader yearly trend as a fluctuating series of alternating gains and losses.
Diverging Fortunes Across Manufacturing Sectors
The contraction impacted more than 60% of industrial sectors during the third quarter, which closed down 3.2% compared to the same period in the previous year. Oil refining emerged as the strongest performer, with a cumulative nine-month increase of 8.2%, despite temporary maintenance halts at the La Plata Industrial Complex. Basic metal industries, food and beverages, and paper and cellulose also posted cumulative gains.
Conversely, the automotive sector suffered the steepest losses, accumulating a 17.2% drop over the first nine months. Wholesale vehicle shipments fell for the eighth month amid declining domestic registrations and increased market competition from Chinese brands and electrified and hybrid vehicles. Non-metallic minerals, cigarette shipments, and metal-machinery rounded out the hardest-hit categories, with the textile industry registering a sharp 9.2% year-on-year decline in September.
Production Breakdown by Economic Goods
| Category of Good | Cumulative Nine-Month Performance |
|---|---|
| Consumer Non-Durables | +1.4% |
| Intermediate Goods | +0.4% |
| Capital Goods | -7.6% |
| Consumer Durables | -9.4% |
Outlook for the Final Months of 2026
Looking ahead, Ferreres warned that the broader economic outlook has deteriorated heading into the final stretch of the year. The consultancy indicated that industrial activity will likely remain stagnant through December, or achieve a much weaker recovery than previously anticipated.