2024-01-21 00:35:48
(Original title: Public Offering Nuggets “Annual Report” Quotes)
As of now, nearly 360 listed companies have released performance forecasts for 2023, of which more than 70% are positive performance forecasts.
Several fund managers said that overall, this year they will pay more attention to investment opportunities that have performance reversals or exceed expectations in the export chain, medicine, electronics, automobiles and other fields. Subsequently, the investment portfolio will be appropriately adjusted based on the company’s operating conditions, financial data, valuation and other factors.
Public offering multi-dimensional “nuggets” annual report market
A-shares have entered the “annual report” time, and many companies have “announced good news” in advance. Wind data shows that as of January 19, 356 A-share listed companies have disclosed annual performance forecasts and main operating data. Among them, 266 companies have achieved year-on-year growth in net profit in 2023 (including expected increases, slight increases, and losses). ), accounting for nearly 75%. 119 companies expect that their net profits may double, accounting for more than 30%.
Many fund managers said that annual reports and performance forecasts are an important basis for subsequent investment layout, digging out good companies, and verifying the prosperity of the macro and industry levels, and they will “nudge” annual report investment opportunities from multiple dimensions.
Zou Hui, general manager and fund manager of the Equity Investment Department of Industrial Fund, believes that although 2023 will be a structural market dominated by thematic investment, the annual reports of listed companies are still the most basic reference for fundamental investment and are important for the investment layout in 2024. Sex speaks for itself. On the one hand, the annual report is the most important summary of the listed company’s operating results in the past year; on the other hand, the listed company will also make plans and prospects for the new year’s operations in the annual report, which is a reflection of the company’s investment value and future development. important basis for judgment.
“The annual report and the first quarter report have strong guidance for investment, which is why the market often sees the main line of transactions in April.” An equity investment director in Shenzhen said that in April, as the annual report and the first quarter report were disclosed one after another, The changes in fundamentals and prosperity of different industries will become clearer, which will also help fund managers conduct more specific screening and comparison of different industries, thereby guiding the investment layout for the year.
“Through the annual report, we can understand the overall market and the profitability of each industry from aspects such as the pre-favorite rate and the number of companies that exceed expectations, and grasp the different prosperity levels of each industry. In addition, many companies usually set aside impairment provisions in the fourth quarter. , leading to explosive performance, so the operating quality of listed companies can also be tested through annual report performance.” said Wu Yijing, manager of CITIC Prudential Deep Value Hybrid Fund.
Xu Huan, the proposed fund manager of Xinyuan Xinxuan’s Steady Pension Target One-year Holding Partial Debt Hybrid, said that from a micro level, the company’s operations will be reviewed based on the annual report, focusing on the company’s capacity building, resource investment, and business plans. At the financial data level, pay attention to the company’s free cash flow, capital return, and profitability. At the meso level, we will pay attention to changes in the overall prosperity of the industry, pay attention to the business plans of leading companies, represent the development direction of the industry, and verify each other with the top-down macro logic.
Public offerings favor stocks whose performance exceeds expectations
The reporter learned that fund managers pay more attention to industries and individual stocks whose performance exceeds expectations, and will split and study factors that affect the sustainability of performance. Many fund managers have judged that stocks whose performance exceeds expectations will be mainly concentrated in the export chain, medicine, electronics, automobiles and other fields.
Zou Hui said that the performance exceeding expectations is mainly reflected in several aspects: First, the performance of some listed companies in the export chain such as home appliances and light industry has maintained high growth, which may be related to the rebound in overseas replenishment demand. Second, some growth directions such as medicine, electronics, and media have begun to see some companies with booming growth and performance exceeding expectations. The third is traditional manufacturing fields, such as traditional electrical equipment manufacturing, auto parts, metal processing, etc., which have exceeded expected performance growth.
Xu Huan said that the stocks he focuses on with performance exceeding expectations are mainly in the fields of home appliances, textiles and clothing, consumer services, food and beverages, automobiles, medicine, electronics, computers and other fields. According to Xu Huan’s observation, companies that rise after their performance forecasts are disclosed have the following characteristics: First, their performance grows steadily and the growth rate is fast in 2023. Second, valuations are at historically low levels. Third, the company has a stable history of operations, high long-term capital return, good free cash flow, and some companies have high dividend characteristics.
“Currently, we see some export-oriented companies, especially companies with a high proportion of overseas business, generally showing signs of exceeding expectations in their annual report performance. On the one hand, the overseas inventory cycle has bottomed out and destocking has ended, and customers are beginning to place orders. On the other hand, with the rise of China Enterprises use cross-border e-commerce channels to go overseas, and the speed of overseas business expansion has contributed to the growth of performance.” said an equity investment director in Shenzhen.
“The market always wants to look for stocks that ‘meet its own expectations and exceed market expectations’ for investment, but performance exceeding expectations is just a ‘result’. What is more important is to study the reasons for performance exceeding expectations. Therefore, I pay more attention to the long-term sustainability of individual stocks. Growth, we will break down the factors that affect the company’s performance, analyze the reasons why the current performance exceeds expectations, and then judge whether these factors are sustainable. In addition, for industries and individual stocks, I think the continued growth of demand is the most important, and will Focus on the revenue growth indicator of the industry.” said the above-mentioned equity investment director.
Continuously adjust positions and optimize combinations
Focus on directions such as high prosperity and performance reversal
Many fund managers said that they will adjust positions appropriately based on the annual report disclosures, combined with the company’s operating conditions, financial data, valuation and other factors, optimize the investment portfolio, and focus on high prosperity, performance reversal and other directions.
Zou Hui said that in this year’s investment strategies and portfolios, more emphasis may be placed on research on the future long-term development space and ceiling of industries and individual stocks. Of course, performance fundamentals are always the basis for selecting industries and individual stocks, and we will continue to look for companies that can continue to outperform in subdivided fields.
An equity investment director in Shenzhen said that with the disclosure of annual reports, the fundamentals of listed companies have become clearer, and high-quality companies with improved profits and low valuations have highlighted their mid- to long-term allocation value. Subsequently, based on the disclosure of the annual report, we will comprehensively review various factors such as the company’s long-term competitive advantages, mid-term fundamental trends, and short-term valuation, and conduct appropriate stock exchanges. The new fund’s position building strategy will maintain relatively stable characteristics. On the one hand, it will be more stringent in position management, and on the other hand, it will pay more attention to volatility and safety margin in terms of stock selection strategies.
“For annual reports and first quarter reports, I usually focus on opportunities in two directions. One is whether the direction of high-prosperity industries can be realized, and the second is whether there will be an inflection point in industries in a downward cycle. Once there is a realization signal, it will be April. An important basis for adjusting positions later,” he said.
Xu Huan believes that the alpha factor of an enterprise is more important than the beta factor at the macro level and the industry level. The management principles of old funds or new fund portfolios are consistent. The core factors include the control of portfolio volatility, the matching of company valuation and capital return, and growth potential.
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