Iran Conflict Drives Volatility in Rhine Fuel Import Margins

The ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel is causing significant fluctuations in the profitability of importing fuel via the Rhine River from the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) region. These margins vary considerably not only between diesel and gasoline but also across different regions.

Rising Fuel Prices and Margin Volatility

Since the start of the Iran conflict, crude oil and product prices in Germany and Europe have been increasing, leading to more volatile import margins for gasoil and gasoline. Following substantial price increases on March 2nd and 9th, 2026, diesel prices in Germany briefly surpassed those in the ARA region, making spot imports temporarily profitable. However, prices in ARA subsequently rose more sharply than domestically, causing margins to fall into negative territory.

Backwardation Impacts Diesel Imports

According to one importer, additional spot imports of diesel have not been attractive since early March due to the high backwardation of ICE Gasoil Futures. Backwardation occurs when buyers pay a premium for prompt deliveries compared to future loading windows, typically when demand exceeds current supply. Many market participants sought to secure volumes immediately following the outbreak of the war, anticipating potential disruptions to supply chains in Europe.

Gasoline Margins Show Less Volatility

Calculated margins for gasoline across most regions have exhibited a less volatile pattern. While initial price increases in weeks 10 and 11 led to margin gains, they did not decline as dramatically as those for diesel.

Regional Disparities: Miro Refinery and Rhine River Levels

A notable divergence exists between the Southwest region and other Rhine regions. The Miro refinery (310,000 barrels/day) is experiencing acute supply pressure for both gasoil and gasoline, while locations in the Cologne area, Rhine-Main, and West are primarily supplied by imports. The refinery is operating at high capacity but faces weak demand due to current high prices. Low water levels on the Upper Rhine are hindering transport via inland vessels to other regions and Switzerland. Sellers at Miro are lowering product prices to attract buyers before the end of the month.

German Fuel Price Increases Outpace ARA

Despite the low price levels in Southwest Germany limiting the rise in national average prices for diesel and gasoline, prices in Germany between February 27th and March 17th, 2026, increased more significantly than in the ARA region. The increase in heating oil prices was more pronounced in ARA during the same period.

Methodology

This analysis compares dominant product benchmarks in ARA with their counterparts in Germany, excluding taxes, industry association contributions, CO2 levies, and THG costs.