Russian Diesel Exports May Reach 3.5 Million Metric Tons Monthly Under New US Deal
Russia will be able to return diesel exports to levels above those US President Donald Trump has outlined under a deal with Moscow, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday, according to Reuters. Trump announced on Friday that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets, prompting his administration to temporarily lift US sanctions on Russian fuel designed to deprive Moscow of revenue for its war in Ukraine.
We will see how the situation develops further, but Russia has the capacity to increase diesel fuel exports,
Novak said on the Rossiya-24 state TV channel, as reported by Yahoo Finance. Novak added that by the end of the year, exports could reach 3.0 to 3.5 million metric tons per month, returning to pre-crisis levels.
Infrastructure Damage and Central Asian Supply Routes
Russia’s diesel exports previously collapsed due to Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and self-imposed overseas sales restrictions. Before Ukraine launched a barrage of drone attacks on Russian oil refineries in 2024 and 2025, Russian diesel exports amounted to more than 3 million metric tons per month. Moscow has frequently attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure since launching its full-scale invasion in 2022.
Despite a self-imposed export ban, Moscow has continued supplying diesel to countries mostly in Central Asia under government deals. According to industry sources cited by Reuters, Russian diesel exports to Central Asia last month totaled 427,000 metric tons.
Global Market Impact and Political Pushback
Soaring US diesel prices are hurting American truckers and farmers, presenting a concern for voters and political parties ahead of the US midterm elections on November 3. Trump’s envoys told Ukrainian officials last Friday that the Russian diesel deal aims to draw Moscow back to negotiations after previous efforts to launch sustained talks to end the war failed, three people familiar with the meeting told Reuters.
The agreement triggered a backlash from US lawmakers who argue it provides Moscow with cash to pursue its war without forcing President Vladimir Putin to make concessions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy criticized the deal as a reversal of years of Western policy aimed at isolating Russia’s economy. Zelenskiy noted on Monday that Russian strikes against at least six energy targets during a recent wave of deadly airstrikes across Ukraine demonstrated that Moscow has no interest in an energy ceasefire.
Novak stated that Russian diesel supplies will partially balance global supply and demand. We are already seeing this effect, including in global diesel markets, where prices have fallen by around five to six percent,
Novak said. In the same comments, Novak asserted that US figures valuing Russian resources sold to Europe at $250 billion were significantly understated, placing the actual figure for energy resources supplied to European Union countries from 2022 to the present day at $320.7 billion.
Cargo Volumes and Stated Delivery Schedules
Trump announced on Friday that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons, equivalent to 2.25 million barrels, of diesel to US and global markets. US Energy Information Administration data shows daily use of around 2.94 million barrels in the US transport sector alone, making the initial Russian supply amount to less than a single day’s usage. Trump also stated that Russia would supply another 500,000 tons in November and a further 1 million tons immediately thereafter.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Russian Diesel Agreement
Why did the United States lift sanctions on Russian fuel?
The Trump administration temporarily lifted sanctions as part of a deal for Russia to supply diesel to global markets, which officials hope will draw Moscow back into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and lower soaring US diesel prices.
How much diesel is Russia initially scheduled to send under the Trump deal?
Trump stated that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons, or 2.25 million barrels, followed by another 500,000 tons in November and a further 1 million tons immediately thereafter.
How has Ukraine reacted to the lifted sanctions and export announcement?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy criticized the deal as a reversal of Western policy meant to isolate Russia’s economy, pointing out that recent Russian airstrikes against at least six Ukrainian energy targets show Moscow has no interest in an energy ceasefire.