One Nation’s Surge in South Australia: A Potential Shift in State Politics
South Australians are heading to the polls today, March 21, 2026, for the state election, where One Nation is poised to challenge the Liberal Party’s position as the official opposition while Labor is widely expected to secure a significant victory. A record number of voters have already cast their ballots through early voting.
Record Early Voting Turnout
According to the Electoral Commission of SA (ECSA), a record 454,800 South Australians voted early, more than double the 212,000 who did so at the same stage in the 2022 state election . This year marked the first election where voters were not required to provide a reason for early voting, and the early voting period was reduced to one week. Electoral Commissioner Mick Sherry described the turnout as “incredible” and exceeding expectations .
Labor’s Dominance and One Nation’s Rise
Labor has historically dominated South Australian politics, winning five of the past six state elections and governing for 20 of the last 24 years . Polls consistently indicate a strong lead for Premier Peter Malinauskas and his party, with the campaign largely focused on targeting previously safe Liberal-held seats. However, One Nation has been gaining momentum, with recent polling showing its support surpassing that of the Liberal Party , .
National Significance and Key Players
The South Australian election is attracting national attention, with One Nation’s performance seen as a potential indicator of the party’s broader appeal across the country . Barnaby Joyce, a prominent figure within One Nation, emphasized the national significance of the election, stating, “The country is watching what happens in South Australia” . Cory Bernardi is leading One Nation’s campaign in South Australia .
Campaign Issues and Party Platforms
Premier Malinauskas has prioritized economic growth and addressing housing affordability if re-elected . Liberal leader Ashton Hurn has focused on “bread-and-butter issues” such as 50-cent fares, stamp duty reforms, and payroll tax changes . One Nation has campaigned on issues such as cost of living and immigration . The Greens SA leader Robert Simms highlighted concerns about cost of living and environmental issues, including the algal bloom .
Challenges and Controversies
The campaign has not been without its challenges. ECSA faced difficulties in securing sufficient polling officials, leading to the merging of some polling booths in Whyalla . One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter is subject to an arrest warrant in the UK related to an alleged sexual offense, and his profile was subsequently removed from the One Nation website . Premier Malinauskas addressed controversial comments he made last month regarding One Nation voters .
Looking Ahead
As polls close at 6:00 PM today, the focus will shift to counting the votes and analyzing the results. While Labor is widely expected to win, the performance of One Nation will be closely watched as a potential indicator of the party’s future prospects in South Australia and nationally. The election results will shape the composition of the South Australian parliament and could have implications for the state’s political landscape for years to come.