Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics moved the race for Florida’s 25th Congressional District to “leans Democratic” on Thursday, citing shifting political trends in a district originally designed to favor Republicans. The ratings change suggests that a Democratic wave is building in the 2026 midterm elections, according to the Sun Sentinel.
Shifting Ratings in the 25th District
The 25th District, which spans the coast from Delray Beach to Miami Beach, was established earlier this year through a redistricting process led by the office of Gov. Ron DeSantis. While Republican state officials intended for the new map to solidify GOP advantages, the current race between Democrat Jared Moskowitz and Republican Scott Singer is proving more competitive than anticipated.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, noted that the district remains a primary target for defense because of its unique electoral history. “The targeted seat Democrats have the best chance to defend, in our view, is FL-25, a coastal South Florida seat that backed Trump by 9 points in 2024 but supported Joe Biden by 5 points in 2020,” Kondik wrote in the analysis.
Comparisons to the 22nd District
Crystal Ball also adjusted its outlook for the newly created 22nd Congressional District, where Republican Casey Askar is running against Democrat Pia Dandiya. The district includes parts of western Broward and central Palm Beach County, extending toward the Gulf Coast.
Analysts noted that while the 22nd District leans slightly more toward Republican voters than the 25th, it remains highly competitive. Kondik stated that the environment provides Democrats an opening in the 22nd, noting that both candidates are not currently well-known to the broader electorate.
Independent Ratings Overview
The assessment from Sabato’s Crystal Ball places the national House outlook at 214 districts leaning Democratic, 201 leaning Republican, and 20 toss-ups. Other independent organizations maintain varying outlooks for the South Florida races:
- Cook Political Report: Continues to list both the Moskowitz-Singer and Askar-Dandiya contests as toss-ups.
- Inside Politics: Classifies the Moskowitz-Singer race as a toss-up, while labeling the Askar-Dandiya contest as “tilt Republican.”
- Fox News Power Rankings: Previously moved the Moskowitz-Singer race to “lean D” in September.
Why Florida Redrew the 25th District Map
Why was the 25th District map changed?
The district was created earlier this year as part of a broader redrawing of Florida’s congressional boundaries. President Donald Trump encouraged Republican-controlled states to adjust district lines to favor GOP candidates, leading to a map drafted by an aide to Gov. Ron DeSantis and approved by the state Legislature.
How does the 22nd District compare to the 25th in voting history?
Both districts show similar partisan splits. In 2024, Donald Trump won the territory now comprising the 22nd District 55% to 44%, while Joe Biden carried the same area 51% to 48% in 2020.
Keep reading