San Diego Braces for a Hotter, Drier Summer Amidst El Niño Development
San Diego residents should prepare for a warmer and drier summer season, even after a winter that delivered near-normal rainfall. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which are expected to strengthen through the summer and into the fall.
From La Niña to El Niño: A Shifting Pattern
The La Niña pattern that influenced the recent winter is fading, making way for a developing El Niño. This shift signals a change in weather dynamics for the region. Meteorologist Alex Tardy of Weather Echo anticipated this transition back in September, predicting fewer, but stronger, storms interspersed with extended dry periods.1
Normal Precipitation Despite Heat Waves
Despite a recent prolonged heat wave, San Diego achieved near-normal precipitation levels this winter, largely due to three significant storms: one in mid-November, another spanning Christmas to New Year’s Day, and a third in mid-February.1
El Niño: Not a ‘Godzilla’ Event
Although El Niño is gaining strength, Tardy cautions against exaggerated claims circulating on social media. He emphasizes that current projections do not indicate an exceptionally severe event.13 He describes El Niño as a natural process for the ocean to regulate temperature, either cooling or warming the tropics.1
What to Expect This Spring and Summer
Forecast models currently predict above-average temperatures for the spring and summer months in San Diego. Residents can anticipate warmer-than-normal conditions, more frequent and intense heat waves, and potentially even more severe heat waves as the season progresses.13
Recent Heat Wave
San Diego County recently experienced a record-setting heat wave in mid-March 2026, unusual for that time of year.4