Security Officials Assess Afghanistan Stability at Regional Meeting
Regional security officials gathered for a joint meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, and the Commonwealth of Independent States to evaluate the situation in Afghanistan. During the sessions, officials addressed persistent security threats, cross-border tensions, and a worsening humanitarian crisis that continues to strain the country.
ALERT: SCO Security Body Warns of Rising Militant Activity in AfghanistanA regional security body has warned that the activities of armed groups in Afghanistan are increasing and could pose a threat to the security of neighboring countries.The Regional Anti-Terrorist… pic.twitter.com/AWWfsdvtfw
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation currently assesses the situation in Afghanistan as broadly under control, though Moradzadeh warned that the risk of rapid deterioration remains in place. During his address at the joint regional meeting, Moradzadeh highlighted common objectives outlined in the Bishkek Declaration, pointing out that member nations emphasize the imperative to reconstruct Afghanistan as a peaceful, independent, and neutral nation free from war, drugs, and terrorism.
Security Threats and Cross-Border Clashes
Security concerns across the region center primarily on militant factions operating within Afghan borders. Citing the executive committee of the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure, Moradzadeh identified Islamic State Khorasan Province as the main destabilising force seeking to expand its activities beyond the country’s borders.
Other armed groups maintain a significant footprint inside Afghanistan. Based on the figures that have been reported, al-Qaeda maintains roughly 600 operatives in the country, while Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has launched upward of 600 attacks over the past two years. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and Jamaat Ansarullah also maintain active presences.
Regional friction has intensified due to continuing cross-border military clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, alongside armed attacks originating from Afghan territory into border areas of Tajikistan. In response to the latter, the SCO issued a statement on 3 December last year strongly condemning an attack on Tajik territory.
Humanitarian Crisis and Economic Pressures
While security bodies debate border stability, humanitarian organizations warn of an escalating emergency as winter approaches. Jan Egeland, Secretary-General of the Norwegian Refugee Council, reported that approximately one-third of Afghanistan’s population could face hunger this winter, noting that the number of people lacking sufficient food has increased by two million compared to the same period last year. Egeland attributed the crisis to rising inflation, high unemployment, climate change, and declining international assistance.
John Aylieff, Afghanistan Country Director for the World Food Programme, stated that acute malnutrition among women and children has deteriorated significantly. Humanitarian officials describe the response operation as one of the least-funded operations globally, leaving agencies without the resources necessary to contain the crisis.
To address economic isolation, Moradzadeh emphasized that greater participation by Kabul in regional social and economic projects is increasingly necessary, noting that trade reductions have followed the closure of the border with Pakistan.
Diplomatic Mechanisms and Future Regional Consultations
Diplomatic engagement regarding Afghanistan remains divided among regional capitals. The SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group was established in 2005 and elevated to the deputy foreign minister level in 2018, but no meeting of the group has taken place since the change of power in Kabul in 2021. Moradzadeh noted that no consensus exists among member states to resume the Contact Group’s work, leaving the mechanism suspended.
Despite the deadlock on the Contact Group, diplomatic channels continue through alternative frameworks. The SCO secretariat maintains ongoing consultations with the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia in Ashgabat, UNAMA, and the UN Secretariat’s political affairs department in New York. Additionally, the SCO began participating this year in meetings of the CSTO Council of Foreign Ministers’ working group on Afghanistan, following initial special representative consultations held under Tajikistan’s chairmanship.
To bolster long-term counter-terrorism capabilities, the SCO is establishing new permanent bodies, including a counter-narcotics centre in Dushanbe and a comprehensive security threats centre in Tashkent, alongside information security and transnational organized crime centres.
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