Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Eyes Potential $11-Billion Windfall from SpaceX Stake

The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) faces a significant potential financial gain, with estimates suggesting its early stake in SpaceX could be worth as much as US$11-billion. The pension fund, which manages $279.4-billion in net assets, first invested in the aerospace company in June 2019. As SpaceX prepares for a public listing on the Nasdaq, this position stands as a potential landmark return for the fund’s venture capital arm.

The Origins of the SpaceX Investment

The pension plan’s involvement with SpaceX began in June 2019 through its Teachers’ Venture Growth (TVG) division, which had been established just two months prior. According to the pension fund, this unit was created to secure stakes in companies that have outgrown their initial financing rounds.

While the fund has not officially disclosed the size of its position, reports indicate the initial investment was approximately US$220-million. Olivia Steedman, executive managing director and global head of TVG, stated that the fund has “added to our position several times since” 2019, citing the SpaceX team’s “strong performance” and “consistent execution against ambitious objectives.”

Financial Impact and Future Strategy

For the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, which covers 346,000 working and retired teachers, the SpaceX holding represents a contrast to some of its higher-profile investment challenges. In 2022, the fund wrote down a US$95-million investment in the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX to zero.

Despite the potential for a massive payout, the fund has not signaled an immediate exit. In March 2026, chief investment officer Gillian Brown noted that an IPO is not necessarily “a target exit point.” The fund is reportedly evaluating whether SpaceX’s broader operations, including its work in artificial intelligence, offer further growth potential. This long-term outlook follows a 2025 performance report where the pension fund recorded a 6.7% return, bolstered by a 30% surge in its venture growth portfolio.

Market Valuation and Risks

The projected US$11-billion valuation of the OTPP stake is contingent upon market reception of the SpaceX IPO. While some estimates suggest a valuation of $1.75-trillion for the company, market analysts offer varying perspectives. For instance, analysts at Morningstar have expressed skepticism regarding these high-end valuations, suggesting the company may be worth less than half of its projected IPO target.

The outcome of the listing will be a critical test for the pension fund’s strategy of backing late-stage private technology companies. As the fund moves toward the IPO date, it remains one of the most closely watched institutional investors in the aerospace and satellite technology sector.