El Niño 2026 Forecast: BMKG Urges Vigilance as Weak-to-Moderate Event Expected in Mid-2026
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued a warning for residents in Southeast Sulawesi and South Sulawesi to remain alert for the potential onset of El Niño in mid-2026. According to BMKG monitoring, the climate phenomenon is expected to emerge between May and July 2026, with intensity projected to fall within the weak to moderate category.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. For the upcoming event, BMKG defines moderate El Niño as a sea surface temperature anomaly between 1 and less than 1.5 degrees Celsius, although weak El Niño corresponds to anomalies ranging from 0.5 to less than 1 degree Celsius.
The Head of the Sultra Climatology Station, Kusairi, emphasized that BMKG does not leverage unofficial terms such as “El Niño Godzilla” or “Super El Niño” in its official classifications. He stated that such labels circulating on social media are not scientific terminology and urged the public to rely only on verified information from BMKG’s official channels.
BMKG’s regional office in Makassar (Wilayah IV) echoed the forecast, predicting El Niño activity to begin in July 2026 and persist through the end of the year. The agency noted that while the 2026 event is expected to be weaker than the strong El Niño of 2023–2024, it still poses risks of reduced rainfall and prolonged dry seasons, particularly in Sulawesi.
In South Sulawesi, the peak of the dry season is forecast for August–September 2026, with approximately 79 percent of the region likely to experience drier-than-normal conditions and an extended duration of the dry season.
BMKG continues to monitor atmospheric conditions, which remain neutral as of late March 2026. The agency advises the public to stay informed through official updates and to take anticipatory measures, especially in agriculture and water management, to mitigate potential impacts.