Syria Navigates Escalating US-Israel-Iran Conflict, Balancing Precarious Stability

The ongoing military conflict between the USA, Israel, and Iran, now nearing its second week as of March 15, 2026, is casting a long shadow over Syria, a nation already scarred by years of war. While attempting to remain neutral, Syria finds itself increasingly impacted by the regional escalation, facing economic strain, airspace violations, and heightened tensions along its borders. The conflict, which began with events in October 2023, has seen the dismantling or weakening of Iranian proxy structures in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen [CNN].

Syria’s Position: A Delicate Balancing Act

Syria, militarily weakened and economically devastated, is prioritizing stability and attempting to avoid direct involvement in the conflict. The new leadership, following the fall of the Assad regime, has sought to realign its foreign policy, fostering closer ties with Arab states and Western actors, including the USA. Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa has repeatedly emphasized the need for de-escalation [CNN]. However, Syria’s geographical location makes complete neutrality challenging.

Airspace Violations and Renewed Trauma

Syrian airspace has become a corridor for missiles and fighter jets, mirroring the situation during the 12-day war in June 2025. Iranian missiles and drones frequently traverse southern Syria, often intercepted by Israel, resulting in explosions and triggering traumatic memories for residents of areas previously affected by years of bombing [CNN]. An incident on March 1st saw a falling Iranian rocket injure several people and tragically cause the death of a child in Ain Terma, Eastern Ghouta, reopening classic wounds for a community already scarred by years of siege and conflict.

Economic Pressures Mount

The war is exacerbating Syria’s already dire economic situation. Food prices in major cities have risen sharply due to disrupted imports and increased transportation costs, impacting a population where over 80 percent of households are considered food insecure. The cost of living is soaring, with Syrians facing European-level prices on incomes as low as $200. Fuel shortages are as well worsening, with long queues forming at gas stations. The Syrian state has limited capacity to mitigate these economic effects through subsidies or aid programs [CNBCTV18].

Military Landscape and Border Tensions

Currently, Syria is not considered a central military theater in the conflict. Many pro-Iranian militias, including parts of Hezbollah structures, have left the country. Major internal fighting or direct airstrikes on Syrian territory by the USA or Israel are considered unlikely, and Iran does not appear to be targeting Syria directly, focusing instead on targets with economic impact on the United States and its allies. The US has also reduced its military presence in eastern Syria in recent months [ABC News].

However, tensions are rising along Syria’s borders with Lebanon and Iraq. Damascus has increased military security to prevent weapons and drug smuggling and the infiltration of Hezbollah fighters. Reports indicate that Hezbollah has fired shells from Lebanon into Syrian territory in response to Israel’s use of Syrian airspace for operations in Lebanon. The US is reportedly considering allowing the Syrian army to play a role in disarming Hezbollah, a move that could exacerbate existing sectarian tensions.

Uncertain Future and Regional Implications

Syrians are expressing deep concern about the escalating conflict and its potential consequences. The uncertainty surrounding the war’s duration and scope is particularly unsettling for a country that has endured over fifteen years of instability. While US President Donald Trump’s statements regarding the war’s trajectory have been contradictory, there are indications that Washington may seek a swift withdrawal [Times Now News]. For Syria, this situation represents a new phase of insecurity, adding to the challenges of reconstruction and stability.